Know Thine Enemy: Kansas State will be a desperate team tonight

Tonight the Texas Tech basketball team faces a crucial early Big 12 conference matchup against the last place Kansas State Wildcats. But do not be deceived by the Wildcats’ 0-3 conference record. Head coach Bruce Webber’s team will be a tough challenge for the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech has had the most difficult of three game start to conference play of any Big 12 team facing Texas, Iowa State and Kansas. However, the Wildcats have had perhaps the second most difficult opening stretch playing West Virginia, Texas and Oklahoma.

A look at the stats shows that this should be an even matchup. The Red Raiders are averaging 74.9 points per game while Kansas State averages 72.8. Both teams play solid defense with the Red Raiders giving up 66.3 points per game and the Wildcats allowing only 64.7.

The Wildcats are a balanced scoring team with three players averaging double figures on the season and seven players scoring at least six points per game. The team’s leading scorer is 6-foot-7 forward Wesley Iwundu who scores 12.7 per game. He also grabs 4.3 boards per contest.

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It seems like we have said this every game but it holds true again that Texas Tech forward Zach Smith must have a solid defensive effort against Iwundu tonight. Smith will have the height and length advantage against the junior Wildcat forward from Houston so he should be able to matchup well in this head-to-head battle.

Texas Tech fans should be wary of the Wildcats’ senior guard Justin Edwards. The big 6-foot-4 senior is a do-it-all player for Kansas State averaging 12.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game.

Tubby Smith’s team has struggled against quality guards thus far in Big 12 play and Edwards will be a difficult cover with his size and scoring ability. Fortunately for Texas Tech, Edwards is not a good 3-point shooter hitting only 26% of his attempts from deep.

In fact, the entire Wildcat team struggles from three-point-range. As a team Kansas State shoots only 26% from the three-point arc.

Freshman guard Barry Brown is the Wildcats’ leading three-point threat. He is shooting at a 37% clip from deep but has hit only 20 on the season thus far.

One area where Texas Tech should have an advantage is at the foul line. I emphasize should after the Red Raiders shot below 50% (9-19) against Kansas on Saturday night.

Kansas State is only hitting 68% of its foul shots but it does get to the line frequently (26 times per game). That number is actually slightly higher than Texas Tech’s 25 free throw attempts per game this year.

These numbers tell us that both teams look to drive the ball to the lane and score in the paint. This makes sense given that neither team is a strong outside shooting squad.

Expect this game to be a defensive struggle. The first team to 65 points may be the victor.

The Wildcats are in the top 15 in the nation in defensive rating forcing 7 steals per contest. But Texas Tech has done a great job protecting the ball thus far in 2015-16 and that trend must continue this evening.

Kansas State head coach Bruce Webber has a reputation for fielding physical teams that pride themselves on playing strong defense. However, the Wildcats often struggle to score the basketball, especially in half-court situations.

Texas Tech must protect the basketball and attack the rim with consistency to get to the foul line. Once it gets foul shots, it would be great if Texas Tech could actually make them tonight.

If the Red Raiders can regroup from the tough loss against Kansas and play with energy and passion in a tough environment, there is no reason that they can’t come out of Manhattan with a victory.

This game could be a pivotal contest for Texas Tech’s hopes of an NCAA tournament birth. Road games in the Big 12 are difficult to win but this is one of the more winnable road contests that Tech will have in league play.

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That is not to say that this game will be easy. Kansas State took No. 11 West Virginia to double overtime in Manhattan to open conference play and has desperation on its side. The Wildcats know that they can’t fall to 0-4 in the conference and have any hope of a successful season. So Texas Tech will have to weather Kansas State’s best shot.

Ultimately, this is a game Texas Tech can and should win. Coming away with a road win tonight would be a huge step towards earning a postseason birth for the young Red Raiders and I expect Tubby Smith to find a way to come away with a tight victory.

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