Texas Tech basketball is improved overall but not on a Big 12 level

What began as a fairy tale for the Texas Tech men’s basketball team is quickly turning into a recurring nightmare. Despite beginning the 2015-16 season 11-1 and being praised as the most improved team in the Big 12 (if not the entire NCAA) the Red Raiders might have to face the reality that while they are improved, they are not necessarily Big 12 improved.

There is no question that the Big 12 is the best college basketball conference in America. CBSSports.com basketball analyst Jerry Palm predicts that seven of the ten teams in the conference will receive bids to play in the NCAA tournament. Furthermore, eight of the schools in the league are ranked in the top 60 in America according to the RPI index.

Life in the Big 12 is brutal. Now we may be finding out that Texas Tech still is not ready to climb the latter up the conference standings.

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A comparison of the conference statistics from last year’s Red Raiders team to this year’s does show slight improvement.

Last season, Texas Tech averaged 55.5 points-per-game in conference play and through five games this year that scoring average is up almost 13 points. But remember that scoring across the nation is elevated due to the new rule that shortened the NCAA shot clock by five seconds per possession.

Another positive development this season is that Texas Tech has been far more competitive against top conference teams. In 2014-15, the Red Raiders had an average scoring margin of -13.5 points-per-game. This year’s team has cut that deficit in half to -7.2 points-per-game.

But while Texas Tech has been relatively competitive against Iowa State and Kansas (two teams that beat the Red Raiders by at least 20 points on one occasion last year), the only statistic that matters is not much better.

After staring the Big 12 season with a win over a Texas team playing its first game without starting center Stephen Ridley, Texas Tech is now 1-4 in conference games. Should Texas Tech win only 1 of every five games in the Big 12 this year its record will be only one game better (4-14).

Looking at the schedule that remains, the Red Raiders will likely be favored entering only five or six of its remaining games. The two match ups against TCU and Oklahoma State seem to be toss-ups and the final home game of the year against Kansas State look to be the best chances Texas Tech has to put more Big 12 wins on the board.

But it is highly unlikely that the still-growing Red Raiders will win all six of those games. On the other hand, it seems illogical to think that somewhere along the way Texas Tech will not pull off an upset. The point is that the trajectory of this season is starting to look awfully familiar with Texas Tech as the team that has to have everything go just right to come away with a victory.

This year’s team still does not have much of a margin for error. While the team’s overall free throw percentage is up, the Red Raiders still struggle in ways that cost them games.

Remember that increase in scoring we discussed earlier? Well that is a bit misleading. The 2015-16 Red Raiders are shooting 45% from the field, a mere 5% better than last season. What’s worse is that this year’s squad is shooting worse from deep than last year’s.

While the 32% shooting from behind the arc of last year was poor, that number has dropped to just 30% this season and in conference games Texas Tech has been outshot 43% to 28% by Big 12 foes this year. Opponents in Big 12 play have outscored Texas Tech 123-69 from 3-point-range giving the other team the larger margin for error virtually every night, as the 3-point-shot is the great equalizer in basketball.

And finally, Texas Tech still has not found a go-to player. In a conference loaded with alpha males like Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield, Iowa State’s Georges Niang, Texas’ Isaiah Taylor, Kansas’ Perry Ellis and Wayne Seldon, Kansas State’s Wesley Iwundu, Baylor’s Taurean Prince or West Virginia’s Devin Williams, Texas Tech still does not have a go-to player that is proven to deliver in the clutch.

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Five games is almost 1/3 of the conference season and the good vibes this program was riding just two weeks ago feel as far away as the program’s last NCAA tournament bid (2007). The unfortunate truth may be that Tubby Smith’s Texas Tech basketball team is improved overall but not as much as initially thought when it is measured on a Big 12 scale.

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