What Texas Tech must do to earn a NCAA Tournament bid

Coming into the 2015-16 basketball season, the goal for Texas Tech basketball was earning a postseason birth whether that be in the NCAA tournament or the NIT. After the team began 11-1, many experts were predicting that the Red Raiders would be in the NCAA tournament in Tubby Smith’s third season as head coach.

But a 4-game losing streak in conference play seemed to slow the team’s momentum and made a NCAA tournament bid much more questionable. Fortunately, the team pulled out a gutty road win against TCU on Monday to move to 12-5 on the season and 2-4 in the Big 12.

The win on Monday was critical in keeping Texas Tech’s NCAA tournament hopes alive. Looking at the remaining schedule for the Red Raiders, here is what Texas Tech will most likely have to do to just put itself in the conversation for a bid to the big dance.

Last season, seven Big 12 teams made the NCAA tournament field. The Texas Longhorns were the lowest seeded Big 12 team so they will be the team that we will compare this year’s Texas Tech squad to.

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The 2014-15 Horns finished seventh in the conference with an 8-10 record and 20-13 overall mark. Since the Big 12 was just as highly regarded last year as it is this year, last year’s Longhorns make a reasonable team to use as a measuring stick.

Let’s assume that Texas Tech must get to 8 victories in conference play to earn a NCAA tournament birth. How can Tubby Smith’s team reach that mark?

The first priority for Texas Tech is to begin to defend its home court. After beating Texas in Lubbock to open conference play, the Red Raiders have lost two home games (though both were to top-25 teams, Kansas and Baylor).

Of the remaining home games for Texas Tech, one must believe that the games against Oklahoma State, Kansas State and TCU are games the Red Raiders absolutely should and must win. If the Red Raiders hold serve in those three games, they will have five conference wins.

So where will the other three wins come from? Finding those wins will require road wins and home upsets, neither of which will be easy.

Texas Tech hosts No. 6 West Virginia on Saturday, No 19 Iowa State on February 10^th, and No. 1 Oklahoma on February 17^th. In each of those games, Texas Tech will be a decided underdog but it must win at least one of these games to reach eight conference wins.

The most likely victory seems to be Iowa State. When the two teams met in Ames on January 6^th and Texas Tech kept the game close throughout until Iowa State pulled away in the final two minutes for a 7-point win.

The other ranked teams Texas Tech will host at the United Supermarkets Arena are tougher match-ups. Oklahoma has the best back court in the nation and features Buddy Heild who is arguably the best player in America.

West Virginia has given Texas Tech fits in recent years and the Red Raiders lack of depth will be exploited by the Mountaineers full-court press. So beating the Cyclones in Lubbock seems to be something Texas Tech must do.

Fortunately for Texas Tech there are three winnable road games left on the schedule. But only two of those games are Big 12 games.

Tech will travel to Texas on February 6^th to play the Longhorns which Texas Tech beat to open the conference schedule. Texas is struggling in its first year under new head coach Shaka Smart and has lost at home to TCU, which Texas Tech just beat.

Though winning in Austin is always difficult for Texas Tech, the Longhorns are not a good team this year and the atmosphere in the Erwin Center is likely to be tepid at best as the fair-weather Longhorn fans may have given up on this year’s team.

On February 20^th, Texas Tech will face Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Again, winning in Gallagher Iba Arena is never easy (ask Kansas) but the Cowboys are only 10-8 on the season and tied with Texas Tech at 2-4 in the league. This is a game that will be a toss-up and Texas Tech can come away with this win.

So if Texas Tech can pull off one home upset, win the home games against teams it should beat and come out of Stillwater and Austin with wins, it will reach 8 wins in the toughest conference in America.

Finally, there is one more opportunity for the Red Raiders to make a statement on a national level. On the last day of January, Tech will take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville.

This game, which is part of the Big 12 / SEC challenge, is winnable for Texas Tech. Despite the fact that Arkansas has a great home court atmosphere, what it doesn’t have is a great team this season.

The Hogs are only 9-8 on the season with losses to Akron, Mercer, Dayton and LSU. Texas Tech can absolutely come out of this game with a win to bolster its tournament resume.

So if Texas Tech beats TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State in Lubbock, pulls off one upset and beats Texas and Oklahoma State on the road, it will finish with an 8-10 record in conference play. Add a win at Arkansas and the Red Raiders would have 19 wins putting the team squarely on the bubble for an NCAA tournament bid.

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It will be difficult for Texas Tech to reach 19 wins on the season or 8 wins in the conference because of the rugged nature of the league and the loss of starting forward Norsene Odiase. But the opportunity is there, now the young Red Raiders must make the most of that opportunity.

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