Texas Tech: NFL Draft first round predictions

With the 2017 NFL Draft scheduled to begin this evening, there are several former Texas Tech football players who are hoping to hear their names called before end of business on Saturday.

Of those players, are former gunslinger Patrick Mahomes, and former Texas Tech quarterback and Cal transfer, Davis Webb.

Both quarterbacks are high on Draft boards throughout the NFL, and with almost as many teams needing to fulfill that position at some capacity, and players available, both have a legitimate shot to go early on–even as early as the first round.

With the 2017 NFL Draft set to kick off in just a few hours, I wanted to run through where I see two of Texas Tech’s top producers in the Kingsbury era land.

But first… be sure to screen shot this:

NFL DRAFT SCHEDULE

Round 1: Thursday, April 27: 8 p.m. ET

Rounds 2-3: Friday, April 28: 7 p.m. ET

Rounds 4-7: Saturday, April 29: NOON E.T.

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes could sneak his way into the first round, and if he does, he’d become Texas Tech’s highest drafted quarterback since Billy Joe Tolliver, who was drafted at No. 51 overall by the San Diego Chargers in 1989.

The overall draft analysis on Mahomes has been relatively similar. Some experts question whether he’ll find success in the NFL because of Texas Tech’s “gimmicky,” or “simple” offense. Others think he’s a fascinating player who has demonstrated an ability to adapt to a Pro Style offense consistently in the months of rigorous evaluations since declaring.

Despite such contrasting takes on Mahomes, very few think he actually falls outside the second round, and even more chalk him up as an indefinite first rounder. There are six teams in the first round that have a glaring need for a quarterback, and most of those teams have met, and worked out with Mahomes, so there’s a good chance that could apply enough pressure on one of them to pull the trigger and take Mahomes early on.

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Houston Texans’ fans have been uneasy about their quarterback situation for some time now, and head coach Bill O’Brien could be in the hot seat this season if those quarterbacking needs haven’t been fulfilled. I think the Texans need a spark, and who better to provide that than Patrick Mahomes? He’s certainly not a short-term solution to sell tickets, but after the Brock Osweiler debacle, the position does need a playmaker to provide that immediate spark.

Mahomes is, without a doubt, the Draft’s biggest wild card. Analysts have him all over the Draft board map, and from what agents are saying, it really is anyone’s guess where he lands, despite several teams expressing strong interest.

When Giants’ head coach Ben McAdoo made an uncharacteristic stop in Lubbock on Texas Tech’s Pro Day, rumors went rampant that the New York had its eyes set on Eli Manning’s successor. I think this could be an ideal landing spot for Mahomes, where he could definitely grow under Manning’s direction, but if he’s still available at the No. 25 pick (barring trades), I see Mahomes as a possible starter in Houston this fall.

Pittsburgh has also been in conversation for Mahomes, and I think he could learn a lot under Ben Roethlisberger, and possibly have a Dak Prescott moment if the injury bug hits Big Ben in 2017.

Davis Webb

Davis Webb was a graduate transfer at Cal, where he played for the 2016 season under former head coach Sonny Dykes.

Webb has emerged in the past month as a player who is intriguing to many NFL teams. If you were to ask several agents their opinions, most would also chalk him into the first round (even over Mahomes).

Experts like his size, and think his high football IQ will help him mature into a “true” NFL passer. One of the weaknesses on Webb we’ve heard throughout the Draft process, is that his athleticism is average, and he’s inconsistent.

Throughout his entire career, Webb threw for 9, 852 yards, 83 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions. That’s an impressive stat in itself, but in 2016, Webb threw for 4,295 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. While many believe Webb would serve best as a developmental backup, I think that in the right scheme, he could emerge as stiff competition.

Webb is a workaholic, who followed in the footsteps of Raiders’ QB Derek Carr, and showed up to the Senior Bowl two days in advance for extra preparation. Some refer to Webb’s 62 percent passer rating as an indicator of poor decision making, however, his work ethic and attention to detail makes him an ideal team mate.

Throughout Draft prep, I’ve noticed analysis that seems to forget the reason Mahomes took over at QB1 in 2014: injuries. Webb had an ankle injury, and ultimately, shoulder surgery that same year. He didn’t “lose his job” due to inconsistencies, or poor decision making. The narrative could be another motivating factor for Webb to take an opportunity and use it as a transformative time.

There are seven noteworthy quarterbacks in the Draft, including Chad Kelly, whose has been discussed as a bargain late-round selection. With six teams expressing need for a quarterback, two very logical landing spots would be Arizona, and Pittsburgh. Carson Palmer has the Pac-12 connection with Webb, and could provide excellent mentorship for Webb, so I’m hoping that’s where he lands.

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