Texas Tech Football: Why it’s more competitive than people think

Texas Tech made an offer to outside-the-box recruit, defensive tackle, Devin McCabe last week, but his commentary on football in the State of Texas is something all in-state recruits should hear.

While browsing through Texas Tech news, I stumbled upon a quote from a Rivals article that had me thinking, “this guy belongs here.” No, it wasn’t a highly touted in-state receiver, or another Whitehouse connection; it was Devin McCabe–a midwestern kid who took a shot, sent a Texas Tech coach a DM on Twitter, and received an offer.

“Going to a school like Texas Tech in a state like Texas where football is the big dog, that would be awesome and something I would definitely consider,” McCabe told Rivals. “As a Midwest guy, when you think of Texas football you think best of the best. That’s where all the colleges go to recruit.”

Wreck ‘Em Red’s Matthew Conner covered the offer when it was announced, which includes the quote, but I want to take it a step further and dissect why this is so important.

When in-state recruits receive interest from schools outside the state, it’s exciting because some actually want to leave, and believe they can thrive outside their elements. For others, it’s a genuine fit, and if the chemistry works, Texans shouldn’t get upset over opportunities.

For a player like McCabe to speak so highly of football in Texas, however, is substantial. For a while now, the discussion on conference realignment has largely been summarized by a narrative that if it weren’t for the talent in Texas, the Big 12 would have dismantled already. With Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU making up the Big 12 in the State, you’d think recruiting would favor those schools. Instead, blue chip players are heading up north, to schools like Oklahoma; which has become the “blue blood” program in the Big 12.

When Texas Tech offered McCabe, he said, “A big thing for me is they saw me, and thought I was good enough to play for a school in Texas.” For in-state recruits that should be an eye opener that while some are fleeing, others are viewing Texas as the proverbial blue chip production factory for D1 football.

I took to Twitter to ask followers if retaining in-state talent was a top priority:

While the question was directed towards Texans, that 45 vote count could be skewed, however, with 73 percent of the vote, participants still felt an overwhelming urgency to retain players.

I opened the Tweet up for commentary, and one response hit the nail on the head:

If more recruits in the State of Texas stayed in-state, the talent Oklahoma is able to siphon out could be distributed, making several teams competitive. I get that Lubbock is off the beaten path, but with the potential for new college football rules to impact Texas Tech’s recruiting, the program needs to find a competitive angle.

But what could that competitive angle be?

According to MaxPreps, of the 7,423 total football players (Division 1-NAIA) from the State of Texas, 54 percent stayed in-state. While some view Texas Tech’s lack of blue chip players as an issue, it’s important to mention that Tech is the No. 4 ranked team in the State to retain Texas talent. Houston tops the list at 100, Texas at 99, Rice at 93, Texas Tech at 91, and Baylor at 91.

The top out-of-state programs for taking Texas talent are Oklahoma State at 71, Kansas with 46, and Oklahoma with 43.

The MaxPreps article mentioned a big reason for this could be the difference between in-state, and out-of-state tuition. If a player has a full-ride guaranteed, that player has greater flexibility. For players on partial, or walk-ons, financially, it behooves them to stay in-state, and see what happens.

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This might also contribute to the attrition rate.  If a high school player begins the recruiting process and receives no interest from out-of-state schools (especially schools they really want to attend), they go to the program they feel most confident in, in terms of playing time. If they’re getting the reps, and that’s translating to increases in statistics, the player could seek a transfer to a program they feel might improve their Draft stock.

For fans who continue to point fingers at Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury for players transferring, something tells me my analysis has more to do with the actual reasoning behind transfers, than the staff itself.

Texas Tech already pulls in Texas recruits, so it doesn’t need to “find a competitive angle.” What it needs to do is diagnose where facilities need improvements, fundraise, and go from there. If you want to measure the difference between a school that has all the scenic and entertainment draws, let’s use Texas. The Longhorns continue to top the Forbes list of Most Valuable College Teams; which should be an issue for other Big 12 teams, but it’s not. It only proves the old adage to be true; money doesn’t buy happiness.

While Texas stockpiles cash in a recruits’ dream city, it falters in its leadership, which was made painfully apparent during the firing of Charlie Strong. Texas Tech has the leadership, it just doesn’t have the cash, and even without the financial advantage, Texas Tech still managed to stay competitive with Texas.

2016: Texas 5-7; Texas Tech 5-7

2015: Texas 5-7; Texas Tech 7-6

2014: Texas 6-7; Texas Tech 4-8

2013: Texas 8-5; Texas Tech 8-5

What we can draw from this comparison, is that Texas Tech doesn’t have in-state competition. The only competition comes from up North, and after observing Sooners’ fans on social media, the conclusion I draw is that people’s rabid obsession and loyalty to the staff is why Oklahoma is where it is today.

Last year, I saw several fans mentioning Oklahoma offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley as a potential replacement for Kingsbury. Not only did Riley just sign an extension with Oklahoma, if you were to put Kingsbury in his role at, OU, I think they’d have the same success. And much like Tech, the defense piggybacks off the defense, and Norman isn’t exactly the Taj Mahal, either.

Texas Tech isn’t a Top Tier Big 12 team for many reasons, but not for reasons people think. If Texas Tech wants to get that point, a new staff and reset won’t be the answer, but another addition to the core problems Tech faces.

Recruits aren’t avoiding Lubbock because of the coaching staff, but they are paying attention to what fans are saying, and more importantly, the comments hoping Kingsbury is fired. The solution might be simple, however; increased fan engagement and reduced hostility to the staff.

Texas Tech wants players who want to be here, regardless of where they’re from, but they can’t grow without support. Championships are won in the offseason, not on Game Day, and fans need to take part in that.