2018 Texas Tech Recruiting Class Is Lacking Star Power

Over the past week, the Texas Tech football team has had an unprecedented hot streak on the recruiting trail but should fans be concerned about the low rankings of many of these verbal commits?

As recently as one week ago, Texas Tech football fans were frustrated by the slow start to the 2018 recruiting class. But with nine commitments since June 12^th, the general outlook towards the class has begun to trend upwards.

However, there is an unsettling truth about the recruits that Texas Tech has landed in recent days. These prospects are not highly regarded by recruiting services giving just cause to wonder if these players are capable of being legitimate Big 12 football players.

Only three of the nine players to have committed in the past week (DE Cameron Valentine, QB Alan Bowman and OL Weston Wright) are rated as three-star prospects by Rivals.com. The other six are ranted a two-star prospects, which is an unusually high number for a Big 12 program.

In the 2017 signing class, Kliff Kingsbury signed 22 players and only three had two-star rankings. Similarly, the 2016 class featured only three two-star signees out of the 25-players inked.

In fairness, the 2013-2015 classes each had at least five two-star recruits. However, all of those classes were larger than the 2018 class is expected to be.

There are only 15 seniors on this year’s roster. Thus, even when factoring in likelihood of a few transfers during or after the season, it is safe to assume that that 2018 class will be significantly smaller than the other classes Texas Tech has put together in the Kingsbury era.

And while every class of Kingsbury’s has featured some two-star recruits, almost none of them have developed into difference-makers. Thus far, Malik Jenkins is the only two-star recruit to turn into a solid starter under Kingsbury.

Fellow former two-star prospects Broderick Washington and Lonzell Gilmore are expected to start this year and they jury is still out on them. However, the success rate of 2-star recruits is far lower than that of three, four or five-star prospects.

Fans expecting lightly-ranked players to develop into the next Zach Thomas or Wes Welker are asking for a miracle. Those two players were exceptions rather than the rule.

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And as for those fans who want to suggest that recruiting rankings do not translate to success on the field, they are nothing more than the proverbial ostrich with its head stuck in the sand.

As proof, consider the recruiting of the most successful team in the conference, OU. From 2013-2016, Oklahoma signed a total of three two-star players. During that span, the Sooners have finished no lower than second in the conference in team recruiting and they have won the last two Big 12 titles.

Likewise, the other two teams to win the Big 12 during the time Kingsbury has been head coach at Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU, have signed far fewer 2-star or lower recruits than the Red Raiders. From 2013-2016, Baylor and TCU each signed just nine such players. Texas Tech has signed 23.

It is no secret that Texas Tech needs to significantly upgrade the talent on its roster. But thus far, the 2018 class is averaging just 2.5 stars per recruit. And what is more troublesome is that none of the 13 current recruits are four or five-star prospects.

The Red Raiders have just the seventh-ranked 2018 class in the Big 12 to this point. And this rating is inflated by the sheer number of recruits already committed. Texas Tech currently has the third-most recruits on board for 2018 but ranks ninth in the league in average ranking per recruit.

Obviously, the class is far from complete and there is a long way until signing day (though high school players are eligible to sign letters of intent in December for the first time this year). Prospects are constantly evaluated, especially during their senior seasons. So, a few of the Texas Tech commits are possibly going to be ranked higher by the time they sign. However, it is unlikely for the majority of these players to see a significant jump in their overall ranking prior to signing day.

Next: What Texas Tech Can Teach About Student-Athlete Transfers

Only three current Texas Tech commits have offers from a power-five school other than Tech. Plus, none have more than two total power-five scholarship offers which is telling and a bit frighetning. Kingsbury and company need to finish this class with players that are more highly ranked than just two or three-star recruits or the talent disparity between the Red Raiders and the top teams in the conference is likely to continue to grow.

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