Wreck'Em Red
Fansided

ESPN FPI Predicts 6-6 For Texas Tech In 2018

By Matthew Conner

LUBBOCK, TX - SEPTEMBER 12: Head coach Kliff Kingsbury of the Texas Tech Red Raiders prior to the game against the UTEP Miners on September 12, 2015 at Jones AT
LUBBOCK, TX - SEPTEMBER 12: Head coach Kliff Kingsbury of the Texas Tech Red Raiders prior to the game against the UTEP Miners on September 12, 2015 at Jones AT /
facebooktwitterreddit

ESPN has updated its FPI (Football Power Index) for the 2018 season and has Texas Tech going 6-6 in 2018.

It’s never too early to begin thinking about football season.  The recent release of ESPN’s FPI rankings is giving college football fans a point of discussion for the upcoming season and Texas Tech fans may not like what they see.

ESPN predicts Texas Tech will go 6-6 in the regular season for the second consecutive season in what would be a continuation of recent frustration. Furthermore, ESPN gives the Red Raiders just a 1.6% chance to win the Big 12.

Overall, Texas Tech is ranked No. 39 in the nation in the FPI.  Oklahoma is the only Big 12 team in the top 10, checking in a No. 9.

Texas finds itself at No. 17, three spots ahead of Oklahoma State. TCU falls in line at No. 33 overall while West Virginia sits at No. 36.  Right behind Texas Tech is Baylor at No. 40 and Iowa State at No. 41.  Kansas State at No. 44 and Kansas at No. 83 round out the conference.

Explaining everything that goes into the FPI would be impossible in this space but at its core it is a system of predicting a team’s record based on facts such as remaining strength of schedule, statistical outputs of each unit (offense, defense and special teams) and a team’s past performance.

One factor that could be keeping Texas Tech’s FPI ranking suppressed is the Red Raiders’ strength of schedule.  Unlike in college basketball or baseball RPI where a strong strength of schedule elevates a team’s ranking, a tough schedule will force the FPI to drop a team in the rankings because, again, it is a prediction of what the season record will be.

More from Wreck'Em Red

Texas Tech has the 16th toughest schedule in 2018 according to the FPI.  That is due to the strength of the Big 12 which has six teams (Texas, West Virginia, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Iowa State) in the top 20 of schools with the toughest schedules.

Still, those fans unhappy with the Red Raiders prediction of six wins should keep one factor in mind; preseason FPI rankings are entirely dependent on last season.

"According to ESPN.com,“In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below).”"

This is good news for Texas Tech, especially on the offensive side of the ball where Tech will be starting a new quarterback and three new receivers.  Thus, those who feel Texas Tech should have a higher FPI ranking and who think the Red Raiders are in for more than six wins this year, can take solace in the fact that the performances of new players could drastically change the FPI prediction early in the season.

The FPI has Texas Tech’s week one opponent Ole Miss ranked close to Texas Tech at No. 45.  The Rebels are also predicted to go 6-6 in 2018 meaning this computer model puts that game as a virtual toss-up.

ESPN has Tech with a 52% chance to beat the Rebels in Houston.  It also predicts wins against Lamar, Houston, West Virginia (somehow…), and Kansas.  But if the FPI predictions hold true, Texas Tech will lose its final five games though the Baylor game is a virtual toss-up.

Next: Texas Tech Offers New Mexico OT

Fortunately, these rankings are just fodder for offseason talk.  When the games start, these predictions will change significantly and hopefully for the better as far as Texas Tech is concerned..

Home/Texas Tech Football