Texas Tech football: Does David Gibbs rely too heavily on turnovers?

A close examination of the Texas Tech defensive stats under defensive coordinator David Gibbs may cause some to wonder if the Red Raiders are too dependent on forcing turnovers.

When David Gibbs was hired to coordinate the Texas Tech defense prior to the 2015 season, he immediately began to talk about the importance of forcing turnovers. And in the three-plus seasons since, his defense has significantly improved in that area.

In the three years prior to Gibbs’ arrival, Texas Tech forced a total of 35 turnovers. But in the last three seasons, the Red Raiders have forced 67 turnovers, an increase of 32 takeaways.

While no one will complain about a defense that consistently takes the ball away from the opponent, there can be a danger in relying too heavily on turnovers considering their randomness. This topic was covered in depth this offseason in an article by David M. Hale of ESPN.com.

In the piece, he quotes a math professor from Stanford who has studied turnovers in football and has found that there is more luck and chance to takeaways than coaches like David Gibbs might believe.

"“The analytics say that turnovers are way, way more random than coaches or fans think,” said Ed Feng, the curator of The Power Rank analytics service who has a Ph.D. in applied math from Stanford. “It’s not a perfect way to say there’s no skill. It’s just that turnovers are a really subtle thing, and randomness plays a much bigger role than people want to think.”"

Randomness and a lack of luck could explain the Red Raiders’ drop in takeaways in 2018. Through three games, Texas Tech has forced only five turnovers with only one coming against an FBS team in the week-one game against Ole Miss. By comparison, after three games in 2017, Tech had forced nine turnovers including five in week-three against Houston.

And a closer look at the defensive numbers during the Gibbs tenure reveals just how overly-dependent on takeaways the Red Raiders have become.

Under Gibbs, Tech has allowed 39.7 points per game in 41 games. But in the nine games Tech has gone without a takeaway during that span, the defense has allowed an average of 55.1 points per game.

Taking it a step further, Tech has forced one or fewer turnovers 21 times under Gibbs. In those games, it has given up an average of 48.8 points per game.

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Conversely, in the 20 games in which Tech has forced at least two turnovers under Gibbs, the defense has allowed just 27.1 points per game. Those numbers show that if Texas Tech does not find a way to take the ball away (or benefit from the miscues of its opponent), its defense is going to struggle. In fact, the fewest points a Gibbs’ defense has allowed in a game with no takeaways is 44 which came in a loss at Kansas State in 2016.

What is eye-opening about turnovers in college football is that the top defenses in the nation do not rely on taking the ball away. For instance, Alabama, which led the country in scoring defense last year, forced only 24 takeaways, five fewer than Texas Tech, despite playing in one more game.

In fact, only two teams, Wyoming and Wisconsin, finished 2017 in the top-10 nationally in both total defense and turnovers gained. In other words, solid defense requires more than just taking the ball away.

While it is certainly a huge advantage to win the turnover battle in a game, the Texas Tech defense must find a way to stop opponents when the random bounces do not go the Red Raiders’ way. A perfect example was last year’s 27-3 home loss to TCU when the Horned Frogs fumbled six times but Tech only recovered one.

Relying too heavily on turnovers is a strategy that defensive coordinators must use when they lack the talent on the roster to stop defenses in other, more controllable ways. That was the issue facing Gibbs in his first two seasons but recently, he has said that he finally feels like he has a legitimate Big 12 defense in place.

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If that is the case, Texas Tech must begin to make stops with regularity regardless of how often it forces turnovers. When that begins to happen, the Red Raider defense will have taken the next step towards legitimacy.

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