Texas Tech football: Why Matt Wells could have success in year-one

As the Texas Tech football program transitions to the Matt Wells coaching staff, there is reason to believe that the new head coach will have more success in his first year leading a new program than most of the coaches in the same situation did this season.

One of the more unusual elements of the 2018 Texas Tech football head coaching change is that the fan base is drastically split when it comes to how it feels about the future of the program. Unlike in most head coaching changes, where the fans are generally optimistic about the future of their school’s football team if for no other reason than they had grown tired of and often had come to hate the previous coach, Red Raider fans are split almost evenly between optimism and pessimism.

There are a number of factors creating this division. Texas Tech is moving on after firing one of the most popular figures in program history, Kliff Kingsbury. Though he was just 35-40 as head coach, a huge portion of the fan base was in favor of giving him a seventh year on the job, especially because of the quarterback injuries that derailed the season.

Those that wanted Kingsbury to be retained are now wondering if Matt Wells will be an improvement. They point to the fact that Wells had three-consecutive losing seasons at Utah State from 2015-17, similar to how Kingsbury ended his run in Lubbock with three-straight sub .500 campaigns. Is a coach that once went just 3-9 in the Mountain West Conference capable of building a winning program in the Big 12? The skeptics certainly have their doubts.

But on the other hand, those who have bought in to the Matt Wells hype believe that Tech has found an energetic, passionate and experienced head coach who is more equipped to run a program than his predecessor. Wells is the winningest head coach in Utah State history with a 44-34 record in six seasons.

He guided the Aggies to five bowl games (including 2018) in the past six years. That is quite an accomplishment at a school that had been to just eight bowl games from 1892-2012.

So is there reason for Texas Tech fans to be confident that 2019 will be a rebound year for the Red Raiders or are we looking at a lengthy rebuild? Let’s take a look at what the programs that made a coaching change in 2018 might be able to tell us.

Thirteen Power 5 programs made coaching changes prior to this season. Their combined record in the just completed regular season was 71-85 (.455). That mark fell to just 41-69 (.372) in conference play showing that coaching transitions are difficult in the first season.

But there may be reason to believe that Texas Tech could surpass the average of 5.4 wins that 2018’s new coaches put up. That is because the Red Raiders have something in common with the programs that had success this year despite breaking in a new coach; a star quarterback.

All five of the Power 5 teams with new coaches to have winning records this year (Arizona State, Florida, Mississippi State, Oregon and Texas A&M), had productive starting quarterbacks returning to run their offense.

Those five programs returned quarterbacks that averaged 2,138.8 yards, 16.2 touchdowns and 7.2 interceptions in 2017. Those numbers are similar to the season Texas Tech’s Alan Bowman had as a true freshman this year.

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The Grapevine, Texas native threw for 2,638 yards, 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions despite playing in only eight games. Had Bowman not lost four games to a collapsed lung, he would have easily surpassed the 3,270 yards and 20 touchdowns that Arizona State’s Manny Wilkins put up in 2017 (which was the best season of any FBS QB starting for a program that would make a coaching change).

It must be noted that there were programs that struggled in year-one of a new coaching staff despite having the benefit of a returning quarterback. Ole Miss went just 5-7 even with Jordan Ta’mu and Arizona did the same with Khalil Tate running the offense.

That is why it was so critical for Wells to bring his offensive coordinator David Yost with him from Utah State. The long-time college football assistant has built a reputation as one of the best QB coaches in the country and should be able to help Bowman continue his development in 2019.

While the Texas Tech offensive line desperately needs to be improved from 2018, the offense should be potent yet again next season as it returns starters at all but one of the skill positions. There is every reason to believe that Wells and his staff can ride Bowman and his playmakers like receivers Antoine Wesley (provided that he does not leave for the NFL) and T.J. Vasher and running backs Da’Leon Ward, Ta’Zhawn Henry and Sarodorick Thompson to a winning season.

Such was the case in 2010 when Tommy Tuberville benefited from the return of senior QB Taylor Potts. Texas Tech posted a respectable 8-5 season just one year after the tumultuous firing of Mike Leach. That year, Tech certainly had its highs and lows but despite bringing in a new head coach with a vastly different personality and philosophy that the previous staff, it was able to win a bowl game (beating Northwestern in the Ticket City Bowl).

This year’s coaching transition is similar in the respect that Tech has again brought in an offensive coordinator that will keep the spread offense in place just as OC Neal Brown did in 2010. Many of the programs that struggled in 2018 (specifically Nebraska, Arkansas and UCLA, which went a combined 9-27) were making drastic schematic changes after bringing in new coaches.

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Certainly, there will be challenges for Matt Wells and his staff in their first year at Texas Tech. But they have been put in a situation that is set up to be more successful in 2019 than most of the programs that had new coaches this year. That will be a tremendous help for a staff that still must win over a large portion of the fan base by getting off on the right foot.

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