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Texas Tech basketball: 4 reasons for confidence as Red Raiders face Michigan

By Matthew Conner

LUBBOCK, TX - JANUARY 16: Jarrett Culver #23 and Tariq Owens #11 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders react to made basket during the second half of the game against the Iowa State Cyclones on January 16, 2019 at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas. Iowa State defeated Texas Tech 68-64. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images)
LUBBOCK, TX - JANUARY 16: Jarrett Culver #23 and Tariq Owens #11 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders react to made basket during the second half of the game against the Iowa State Cyclones on January 16, 2019 at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas. Iowa State defeated Texas Tech 68-64. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Recent NCAA Tournament history suggests Michigan will not reach the Final Four

Michigan is looking to return to the NCAA title game after falling to Villanova in last year’s championship game 79-62.  But recent tournament history suggests that the Wolverines will not survive the second weekend of the tournament.

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In fact, in the last twenty years, only three schools, Florida (back-to-back national titles in 2006-07), Butler (back-to-back title game losses in 2010-11) and North Carolina (runners up in 2016 and national champs in 2017) have reached the title game in consecutive seasons.  What’s more, since 2011, no team that lost the NCAA title game was able to get to the Final Four except for the Tar Heels.

Recent runners up Gonzaga (2017), Kentucky (2014) and Kansas (2012) all lost in the Sweet 16 the following season.  Meanwhile,  Michigan (runner up in 2013) fell one game shy of the Final Four the next season while 2015 runner up Wisconsin was knocked out of the tournament in the second round in 2016.

What the Wolverines are trying to do is extremely difficult.  and the odds suggest they will not survive this weekend’s games.  In fact, since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only Duke in 1991 and Kentucky in 1998 have manage to win the national title the season after losing the title game.

Red Raiders thrive on shutting down opposing team's stars. dark. Next

History suggests that it is unlikely for Michigan to win the West Region and a near impossibility for the Wolverines to cut down the nets in Minneapolis despite the fact that they are an excellent team.   If, as the odds suggest, Michigan is likely to fall this weekend, there is a greater than 50% chance that it will be in the Sweet 16 which would be great news for the Red Raiders.

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