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Texas Tech football: These toss-up games will decide how 2019 plays out

By Matthew Conner

LUBBOCK, TX - SEPTEMBER 29: Alan Bowman #10 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders passes the ball during the first half of the game against the West Virginia Mountaineers on September 29, 2018 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images)
LUBBOCK, TX - SEPTEMBER 29: Alan Bowman #10 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders passes the ball during the first half of the game against the West Virginia Mountaineers on September 29, 2018 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by John Weast/Getty Images)
(Photo by John Weast/Getty Images) /

How the Texas Tech football team is able to fare in these toss-up games this fall will be what determines whether the 2019 season will be a success or a disappointment.

This year, the Big 12 could be more balanced than ever with the vast majority of the conference’s teams likely to be neither excellent nor horrendous.  That list includes the Red Raiders and how they do against teams of a similar caliber will be what tells the tale of Matt Wells’ first season as Texas Tech football head coach.

Most expect the conference to have two elite teams in Oklahoma, the preseason Big 12 favorite and Texas.  Athlon Sports has released its ranking of all 130 teams and the Sooners check in at No. 6 and the Longhorns at No. 11.

Outside of that, the only other Big 12 team expected to make any noise nationally is Iowa State.  The Cyclones are ranked No. 24 by Athlon and will be a darkhorse conference title contender.

On the other end of the spectrum, a number of teams in the conference are expected to struggle.  At No. 108 on Athlon’s list is Kansas, the lowest-rated Big 12 team.  Their Sunflower State rivals, Kansas State are the next-lowest conference team at No. 64.

Meanwhile, the other two Big 12 teams with new head coaches, West Virginia and Tech check in at No. 58 and 59 respectively.  The remainder of the Big 12 teams sit at No. 31 (Oklahoma State), 36 (Baylor) and 37 (TCU).

In the Big 12 preseason poll, the Red Raiders were picked to finish 7th, the highest of the four teams that made a coaching change.  That’s one spot higher than they were picked in 2018.

And last year, the Red Raiders basically finished exactly where they were predicted after going 5-7.  Technically, Tech was tied with Kansas State and Oklahoma State for seventh in the league but if you treat Kansas State’s win over the Red Raiders as a tiebreaker, Tech would have finished tied for 8th.

Hopefully, the Red Raiders will be able to surpass expectations this year.  That is what Baylor and Iowa State did in 2018.

Picked to finish 7th, the Cyclones rode a stellar defense and freshman QB Brock Purdy to a 3rd-place finish going 8-5 overall and 6-3 in conference play.  Meanwhile, Baylor finished in a 5th-place tie with TCU after being picked 9th in the preseason.

What will make this year’s Big 12 so intriguing is the quality of the QB play.  Including Tech, there will be several teams believing they have the best QB in the conference.

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger is the preseason conference player of the year.  OU will bring in Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts who is looking to be the third-straight Sooner QB to win the Heisman Trophy.

Baylor QB Charlie Brewer is coming off a strong sophomore season in which he put up 3,049 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions.  Meanwhile, in Stillwater, redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders, a former 4-star recruit is set to take the reigns.

It all sets up for a middle-class of the Big 12 that will be fighting to join the upper echelon of the conference and threaten to ruin the FOX television network’s dream of another OU-Texas Big 12 title game.  And it means that there will be plenty of toss-up games for the Red Raiders.  Let’s take a look at those matchups and see how they could determine Tech’s fate in 2019.

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