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Texas Tech football: The path to a bowl game in 2019

By Matthew Conner

SAN DIEGO, CA - DECEMBER 30: Terrance Bullitt #1 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders celebrates after his teams' 37-23 win over the Arizona State Sun Devils during their National University Holiday Bowl Game on December 30, 2013 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - DECEMBER 30: Terrance Bullitt #1 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders celebrates after his teams' 37-23 win over the Arizona State Sun Devils during their National University Holiday Bowl Game on December 30, 2013 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images)
(Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images) /

Go 3-0 in the non-conference portion of the schedule

The Red Raiders can actually get halfway to bowl eligibility before the calendar turns to October.  Going 3-0 through a non-conference portion of the schedule that is less than daunting would be a tremendous step towards getting to at least six wins.

The key for the first two weeks will be to avoid being upset.  Though Montana State is a ranked FCS team, the Bobcats should not have the talent to challenge the Red Raiders at home.  Nor should UTEP, which is one of the worst programs in the FBS and has won just one game in the last two seasons combined.

Still, with the Red Raiders playing with new schemes on either side of the ball and with a host of newcomers playing key roles, there is always an opportunity for a hiccup.  That’s why it’s fortunate that the season begins with two home games against lesser opponents rather than a neutral site game against an SEC team like the 2018 season did.

In week three, Tech will travel to Arizona for what should be the first real test of the Matt Wells era.  However, the Wildcats are by no means a juggernaut.

In fact, last Saturday Arizona lost its season-opener at Hawaii 45-38 despite being an 11-point favorite.  The Cats, like Tech, are coming off a 5-7 season last year so this is a game that most will see as a toss-up but after what we saw from Kevin Sumlin’s team in Hawaii, there’s no reason for Tech fans not to expect the Red Raiders to leave the desert with a win.

Consider how important a 3-0 non-conference record is.  If Tech drops one of its first three games, it will have to win four Big 12 games to reach a bowl.  That’s something Tech has not done since 2015 and has only done twice since 2013.  That task becomes even more difficult given that five of Tech’s nine conference games will be true road games this year.

Last year, Tech dropped its first non-conference game and one game proved to be the difference between a bowl game and a coaching change.  While we know a coaching change won’t happen after this year (hopefully…we’re talking to you David McWilliams) but dropping a non-conference game will put Wells in a tough spot in regards to reaching six wins.

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