Texas Tech football: Red Raiders will beat Arizona if…
Tonight, the Texas Tech football team will move to 3-0 on the season by beating Arizona if the Red Raiders can do the following things.
Last month, we discussed the toss-up games that would likely decide how the 2019 Texas Tech football season plays out. Now, we are ready to see how the first of those matchups goes down when the Red Raiders face Arizona in Tucson.
Most are expecting a Southern Arizona shootout that would make Wyatt Earp and Doc Holiday proud. And it’s easy to see why.
Arizona enters the game averaging 51.5 points, good for No. 6 in the nation. Meanwhile, Tech is not far behind putting up 41.5 points per game, tied with UT for No. 28 overall.
Not surprisingly, you can find both of these teams in the top 10 in the NCAA in total offense. Arizona sits at No. 6 (629.5 yards per game) and Tech is at No. 9 (557.5).
But though most assume these high-octane offenses are simply throwing the ball all over the field, the truth is that each is more balanced than some might expect. Arizona is throwing for 325 yards while rushing for 304.5. That ranks them No. 18 and No. 9 in the country respectively in those categories.
Meanwhile, Tech is passing for 358.5 yards per game and churning out 199 on the ground. That’s good for 11th and 48th in the NCAA.
But it is defensively where the difference between these teams is noticeable. Though it is early and Tech has played two offensively inept opponents thus far, Tech’s defense appears to be much less of a liability than Arizona’s.
The Red Raiders enter the game at No. 9 overall in total defense. They have given up just 210 yards per game. While that has come against FCS member Montana State and potentially the worst FBS team in the game, UTEP, consider that in years past, Tech has struggled defensively against a similar caliber of opponents.
In 2014, Tech allowed 408 yards of offense to Central Arkansas out of the FCS ranks and then surrendered 384 yards to UTEP the next week in a 4-point win in El Paso. A year later, Sam Houston State from the FCS racked up 637 yards of offense in week-one while UTEP ran up 414 yards in Lubbock seven days later.
Thus, despite the fact that the competition has yet to be at an elite level, Red Raider fans are justified in their optimism towards the 2019 defense. But optimism is not the word most in Tucson are using to describe their attitude towards the Wildcat defense.
To find the Zona defense on the nation’s total defense ranking, you will have to go all the way down to No. 123…seven spots from the bottom. Giving up an average of 518 yards per game, Kevin Sumlin’s team is allowing over 404 yards per game through the air.
Another area where these teams have been dramatically different is in regards to penalties. Tech has been a pleasant surprise in that area, which has been a long-running thorn in the flesh of Red Raider fans. So far, Matt Wells’ team has been penalized just four times per game, good for No. 15 in the nation. What’s more, Tech ranks No. 28 in the nation in penalty yards per game at 39.5.
Look for the penalty flags to play a significant role in tonight’s contest. Could this be the first time we see Wells’ emphasis on discipline play tremendous dividends in a crucial game?
In addition, there are some other areas in which Tech needs to have the edge tonight. Keep an eye on how the following aspects of the game unfold because if Tech is able to slant them in its favor, the Red Raiders could come away from this shootout the like Earp and Holiday instead of the McLaury brothers and Billy Clanton did 138 years ago just down the road in Tombstone.