Texas Tech basketball: Advanced stats show why Tech regressed in 2019-20

Texas Tech basketball fans wondering why the Red Raiders regressed a bit this past season may find some answers in the world of advanced analytics.

There was a time when sports were all about simple numbers.  For most of their existence, they have relied on stats to help interpret what happened rather than to predict future outcomes, and typically, those numbers were of the type that even those with a math phobia (such as yours truly) could wrap their head around.

But in the modern era of our technology-driven society, the world of numerical analysis has become arguably the biggest driving force in how teams and organizations go about assembling their rosters.  The question is now whether or not that is actually good for the overall product.

Starting with the Moneyball Oakland Athletics and their general manager Billy Beane,  baseball has come to be ruled less by old-school former players who use their gut instincts to make decisions.  Rather, that sport is today dominated by front-office number crunchers who spend more time with spreadsheets than they do watching the sport.

The result has been an increase in what has come to be known as the “two true outcomes”, homers and strikeouts.  Both have increased at historic rates over the last five years and they show no signs of stopping.  But as a result, the ball is in play far less frequently than it used to be and that has made the game less watchable for many fans.

In the world of basketball, advanced analytics has led to a shift in the way teams play offense.  Particularly, many teams are now only interested in layups/dunks or 3-pointers as it has been deemed by the number-crunchers that those are the two most efficient shots in the sport.  Thus, the mid-range game has become somewhat of a lost art.

The problem is that the game is often starting to resemble a game of H-O-R-S-E as five players on the court simply stand around and hoist 3s all night long.  Fortunately, that hasn’t become quite as prevalent in the college game as it has in the NBA but in time, we will likely see that style of play trickle down into the NCAA as today’s youth are looking up to 7-footers like Kevin Durant or Karl-Anthony Townes, both of whom play the game like shooting guards rather than big men.

What’s more, college basketball programs are now starting to lean heavily into this new frontier.  In fact, Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report notes that Nebraska already employs a three-man analytics team.

Of course, Texas Tech isn’t necessarily among the teams that are playing basketball in the “new” way.  Chris Beard is still using the same motion offense that he learned from legendary head coach Bob Knight and that isn’t likely to change anytime soon given how much success he’s had with it.

But that doesn’t mean that advanced analytics don’t apply to Texas Tech.  Rather, we can still look at them and begin to understand just why the 2019-20 team went from a top-15 preseason ranking to fighting for its NCAA Tournament life prior to the cancellation of the postseason.  So let’s go inside some advanced stats to understand why this year’s Red Raiders regressed after two historic seasons under Chris Beard.