Texas Tech basketball: Advanced stats show why Tech regressed in 2019-20

This season’s opponents were simply better offensively

We all know that Tech was nowhere near as good defensively this year as last year’s team was.  But still, the Red Raiders finished No. 9 in the country in the KenPom.com adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, a measure of points allowed per 100 possessions.

This year, Tech gave up an average of 90.5 points per 100 possessions.  That was down from last year’s average of 84.1, which was the lowest since Ken Pom began tracking such stats in 2002.  However, that’s still good enough for a solid season.

There’s no doubt that the loss of Tariq Owens, Norense Odiase, Matt Mooney, and Jarrett Culver, all of whom were fantastic defenders, was a key reason for this regression on defense.  But we also have to account for the fact that this year’s opponents were simply better on offense than last year’s opponents.

Two advanced stats will prove that.  Let’s begin with what is known as true shooting percentage.  That is an analytical model that measures how efficiently players and teams shoot the ball by taking into consideration both 2-pointers and 3-pointers as well as free throws rather than measuring each individually.

For context, know that Memphis’ opponents had the lowest true shooting percentage in the nation this year at 91.2% according to TeamRankings.com.  As for the Red Raiders, they finished at No. 59 in the nation at 100.3%.  But last season, the Red Raider’s opponents had a TS% of a mere 95%.

Now, some of this stat is impacted by how well the Red Raider defended the opponents but when it comes to areas such as free throws, that is all on the opponent. However, there’s no denying that teams like Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Texas were much better offensively this year than they were a season ago and that was one reason for the noticeable jump in Tech’s opponent’s TS%.