Texas Tech football: Red Raider must reverse recent trend in tight games

Texas Tech must start to figure out a way to win close games if the Red Raiders are ever going to return to relevance in the Big 12.

There are two types of winning programs in college football; those that can overwhelm opponents with talent and those that can consistently figure out how tho pull out close games. Unfortunately, in recent years, the Texas Tech football program has been neither. That needs to change in 2020 if the program’s downward trajectory is finally going to begin to turn around.

Last year, half of the Red Raider’s eight losses came by seven points or fewer. What’s more, since 2017, the program has dropped ten one-score games. In that same span, Tech has won just four such contests.

In 2019, the Red Raiders fell to Baylor 33-30 in double-OT but it’s hard to hold that game against Matt Wells’ team. After all, they were robbed of what would have been a game-changing fumble recovery in the first OT by Big 12 officiating incompetence.

Still, the other three one-score games were there for the taking. After jumping out to an early two-score lead against Kansas, Tech had a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter but was unable to score on their final offensive possession. Then, it appeared that the Red Raiders had pulled their bacon out of the fire by blocking KU’s last-second FG attempt to win the game but Douglas Coleman tried to lateral the ball on the return allowing KU to recover and then hit the game-winning kick.

Against TCU in Lubbock, Tech was down 33-31 on its final drive needing only a FG to win but early in the possession, receiver McLane Mannix fumbled and allowed TCU to hang on for the win. The 30-27 loss to Kansas State was also up for grabs late but Tech could not get the Wildcats off the field on KSU’s final drive as the visitors ran out the clock on the ground.

It was a continuation of the program’s struggles in close games over the last three seasons. In fact, you could argue that failing in tight games is the reason Matt Wells is the Red Raiders’ head coach in the first place.

More from Wreck'Em Red

That’s because his predecessor, Kliff Kingsbury, also struggled in close games. In 2018, when Tech went 5-7 leading to Kingsbury’s ousting, the Red Raiders managed to go 0-3 in one-score games.

What’s more, in 2017, Kignsbury’s team dropped three more games by one score including a 38-34 loss in the USF in the Birmingham Bowl that prevented Kingsbury from securing a much-needed winning record. (But in fairness, the Red Raiders would not have ever been in that bowl game had it not been for a 27-24 comeback win in Austin in the final game of the regular season; one of the rarest of moments in recent history when Tech pulled out a close game.)

Making these matters all the more frustrating is that Tech is finding numerous ways to lose these close games.

At times, the offense has failed to come up with a needed scoring drive as was the case with Kansas and TCU in 2019, and Kansas State in OT in 2017. Then there were critical turnovers that cost Tech against TCU last fall and West Virginia at home in 2018. Other times the defense spit the bit at key moments such as against Kansas State in 2019, Texas and OU in 2018, and Oklahoma State and USF in 2017.

So will this trend reverse itself this year? There’s reason to hope so.

First of all, notice that this trend of awful play in close games has coincided with the post-Pat Mahomes era of the program when the QB play has been sub-standard for Texas Tech. (Mahomes lost his share of close games as well but his defenses were so bad that he was the only reason Tech was even in those games in the first place.)

Perhaps, a healthy year (fingers crossed) out of Alan Bowman could lift Tech in that regard. It’s not that Bowman has ever won a close game but the fact that he is a better QB than Jett Duffey has to give us some faith that he can pull out a last-minute win or two this year.

Tech also has a bit more depth on defense this year. Though no one expects the 2020 Red Raider defense to be a top-50 unit, it will have more capable bodies and that could keep the key players a bit fresher towards the end of games which might allow DC Keith Patterson’s side of the ball to stand up in key moments.

Then there is the experience of being in so many tight contests. Tech is returning all but six players that were starting in November of last year meaning that the 2020 team will be more grizzled and battle-tested than last year’s squad. Also, an extra year of experience under Matt Wells and his coaching staff may pay off in the sense that the players should more certainly know the schemes thus allowing them to play with more certainty in the clutch, and playing with confidence is only going to help when the game is on the line.

But ultimately, it comes down to the players finally stepping up to make plays and better players make plays in key moments. Thus, Tech will likely continue to struggle until the talent level across the board improves either through internal improvement or an influx of better players. Hopefully, we see both happen this year because Red Raider fans are fed up with all the close losses we have had to suffer through in recent years.