Texas Tech football: Too frequently, Matt Wells’ gambles coming up short

After another failed gamble by Matt Wells in the season opener, Texas Tech football fans have begun to question their head coach’s decision-making.

Head coaches walk a fine line when it comes to situational football. Play it too conservative all the time and people will complain that you are not bold enough. Gamble and fail too often and you will be accused of being a moron. Of course, that’s why head coaches can’t afford to listen to the opinion of fans or the media.

So while we have to assume that Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells couldn’t care less what our perception of him is, there’s no question that more often than not, his gambles have not paid off. That’s why he’s become known to a significant portion of the fan base as a coach with questionable situational smarts.

That reputation was only reinforced in last week’s season opener against Houston Baptist when Wells gambled and lost in the fourth quarter. With Tech ahead 35-27 with 5:25 remaining in the game, Wells decided to go with a QB sneak on 4th-and-1 from the HBU 4-yard line.

As all Red raider fans know by now, Alan Bowman was stuffed on the play (as least in the eyes of the officiating crew) and the ball went back to the Huskies. Seven players later, the visitors would score to cut the lead to just 35-33.

It was a critical miscalculation by Wells, who left three points on the field when a FG would have essentially iced away the game. But in the post-game press conference, he defended his decision.

"“4th-and-1 inside the 10, you know, it’s at 75% right now, rate of executing 4th-and-1,” Wells said. “If you don’t get it, they’ve got to go 94 yards. They obviously did. I get that and I understand that when you don’t get it, you’re going to get second-guessed.”"

Being second-guessed is part of the job description for any head coach. But for Wells, the second-guessing is louder than it would be for some of his contemporaries given how often his gambles have backfired during his time in Lubbock.

Last year, Well’s team was just No. 83 in the nation in 4th-down conversion percentage. In all, Tech went for it 25 times on 4th down and was successful on only 12 instances (48%). That percentage is especially low when you consider that most 4th-down conversion attempts come when fewer than five yards are needed to keep the drive alive or to score.

What makes matters worse for Wells is the fact that a number of his failed gambles have been of the head-scratching variety.

In last season’s 28-14 loss to Arizona, he called for a fake FG that asked holder Mark Richardson, a walk-on wide receiver, to try to run for the first down on 4th-and-3 at the Arizona 15. The result of the play was a five-yard loss and a turnover on downs at a time with three points would have pulled Tech to within a FG at 13-10 in the second quarter when there was plenty of football left to be played.

Another odd gamble came a few weeks later when Oklahoma State was in Lubbock. With his team leading 20-0 in the second quarter, for some reason, Wells went for it on 4th-and-2 from the OSU 29. Why not try the field goal to extend the lead and continue to put the Cowboys in an even larger hole?

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While that decision didn’t cost his team the game, a 4th-down gamble against Baylor one week later conceivably did. On 4th-and-2 at the Baylor 17, Wells went for it and lost as Jett Duffey threw an incomplete pass. At the time, it was a 17-13 game in favor of the Bears, and leaving those three points on the field would prove to be massive in a game that eventually went to double-OT where Baylor would win 33-30.

In another three-point loss last year, 30-27 to Kansas State, Wells called for a fake punt on 4th-and-4 from the KSU 46 in the second quarter. What made that play so maddening was that it called for 300-pound DT Jaylon Hutchings to run the ball after taking the snap as the up-man in the formation.

Also, Tech had already run that play earlier in the year against Oklahoma (it was successful vs. the Sooners) meaning that KSU had assuredly scouted it and was likely prepared for it. At the time of the call, the score was just 6-3 KSU meaning there was no logical reason to risk turning the ball over near midfield.

If you want to go for it in that situation, fine. Most fans would be happy with that decision. But why not keep your offense on the field to try to pick that up instead of relying on the legs of a defensive tackle to bail you out?

Then, in the season finale, Wells thew all caution to the wind and went for it three times on 4th down. All three times, his team was unsuccessful, including once on 4th-and-goal.

However, given the way that game played out with Texas winning 49-24, Wells’ reasoning was understandable that day given the fact that there seemed to be no way his defense was going to slow down the Longhorn attack.

Still, the fact remains that Wells has simply been a poor gambler during his time at the helm in Lubbock. While coaches love to think of themselves as bold when they make such decisions, the reality is that their failures often do more damage than the potential rewards would do in the way of good.

Of course, Wells supporters would say that his team simply needs to execute more efficiently in these scenarios. However, there’s no defending the logic of many of these failed calls and that’s why Tech fans are starting to question their head coach’s decision-making acumen.

For Wells, more of these controversial decisions need to start paying off, especially given his team’s razor-thin margin for error in the Big 12. And until they do, it’s just one more opportunity for a cynical and frustrated fan base to question and criticize the man who is leading their football program.