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Texas Tech football: What needs to happen for Red Raiders to upset UT

By Matthew Conner

LUBBOCK, TX - SEPTEMBER 29: Alan Bowman #10 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders warms up before the game against the West Virginia Mountaineers on September 29, 2018 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. West Virginia defeated Texas Tech 42-34. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images)
LUBBOCK, TX - SEPTEMBER 29: Alan Bowman #10 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders warms up before the game against the West Virginia Mountaineers on September 29, 2018 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. West Virginia defeated Texas Tech 42-34. (Photo by John Weast/Getty Images) /
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The sun sets to the southwest behind Jones AT&T Stadium before the college football game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Kansas State Wildcats on November 23, 2019 in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
The sun sets to the southwest behind Jones AT&T Stadium before the college football game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Kansas State Wildcats on November 23, 2019 in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) /

An upset of No. 8 Texas today will be a tall order but if any of the following things happen, the Texas Tech football program could shock us all.

It’s been a long time since there was less optimism around Raiderland prior to a matchup with the Texas Longhorns than there is today.  Though Tech is almost always the underdog when facing UT, just about every year, Red Raider fans are able to imagine scenarios in which their team can come out on top.

But in 2020, finding fans who truly believe that Tech can take down Texas is tough.  In fact, trying to find a significant number who simply think that the Red Raiders can keep this game close is a chore.

Of course, it is easy to understand why.  After all, the two teams couldn’t have looked much different in their season openers.

We already know about Tech’s struggles against Houston Baptist and the sense of impending doom that the two-point win seemed to cast over the entire fandom.  But don’t overlook how dominant Texas was against UTEP.

The Longhorns racked up 689 yards of total offense, 481 through the air, in their 59-3 domination of the Miners.  That included a 78-yard TD pass from QB Sam Ehlinger to WR Joshua Moore on the game’s first play from scrimmage.

On defense, Tom Herman’s team was equally as impressive.  UT allowed only 233 yards of total offense and held UTEP to an average of just 3.2 yards per play.

So it is easy to understand why most fans in scarlet and black are bracing for a rather unpleasant Saturday.  And that pessimism is only inflated by the recent struggles Tech has had against UT in Lubbock.

In fact, the last time the Red Raiders managed to take down Texas at Jones Stadium was in 2008 when Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree connected for the most famous moment in program history.  Since then, Tech has gone 0-5 at home against the Horns despite the fact that many of those Texas teams were far from elite.

In 2010, the Longhorns finished the year just 5-7.  But that year, they managed a 24-14 win in Lubbock on a day when they held Tech QB Taylor Potts to just 158 yards passing and only one TD while intercepting him twice.

The 2014 version of the Longhorns ended the year merely 6-7 overall.  Still, one of those six wins was a 34-13 triumph at The Jones.  Of course, that was the game in which true freshman Pat Mahomes made his first career start only to be knocked out of the game with a concussion in the first quarter.

In 2016, another Texas team that would finish the year 5-7 to miss a bowl game managed to come away from the South Plains with a 45-37 win over Mahomes and the Red Raiders.  That game ended when Mahomes was intercepted in the endzone late in the fourth quarter as he was trying to bring Tech back from a double-digit deficit.

While those were some of the worst Texas teams in recent memory, the current version of the Longhorns might be one of the best.  With a senior QB who is being touted as a Heisman Trophy candidate, a pair of new coordinators to bring new life into the program, and a shiny No. 8 national ranking, Herman’s squad will present quite the challenge to the Red Raiders this weekend.

But with that said, the beauty of college football is that anything can happen.  Thus, despite the fact that no one in their right mind will be predicting an upset, we will still be watching because we’ve all seen the improbable happen when the Horns come to Lubbock.  So with that in mind, let’s take a look at what needs to happen in this game for Matt Wells and his team to pull off the type of stunner that this program desperately needs.

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