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Texas Tech football: Red Raiders will beat Kansas State if…

By Matthew Conner

Sep 12, 2020; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raider helmets are seen on the field before a game against the Houston Baptist Huskies at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 12, 2020; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raider helmets are seen on the field before a game against the Houston Baptist Huskies at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Today, the Texas Tech football team has a crucial Big 12 contest against Kansas State and they will win the game if the following happens.

Maybe it’s the incessant playing of “Wabash Cannonball” and the way the students girate back and forth during it.  Maybe it is the color purple.  Or maybe it is simply the memory of too many awful performances.  But for whatever reason, I always hate watching the Red Raiders play at Kansas State.

Texas Tech returns to action this afternoon in a place where wins have been nearly impossible to come by, Manhattan, Kansas.  Since the first time that the Red Raiders played at Kansas State in 1996 (in the inaugural Big 12 game), they have gone just 2-6 in the Little Apple and they haven’t won on the road in this series since 2008.

But there’s no time better than the present for that trend to begin to reverse itself.  And to do that, the following developments may need to take place this afternoon.  In other words, the Red Raiders will beat Kansas State if…

… they stop giving it away

I hate to be Captain Obvious by pointing out that turnovers are going to be a key to this game.  But there’s no getting around the fact that Kansas State is living off of forcing turnovers this year and that will make protecting the ball even more important this week.

Thus far in 2020, the Wildcats have taken the football away more than any team in the Big 12.  They have forced six turnovers while not giving the football away even once and that’s been a huge plus for head coach Chris Klieman’s team.

By now, everyone knows that KSU is coming off of a huge upset of No. 3 Oklahoma.  But when you look at the box score, it’s tough to figure out just how they pulled that off.

Just consider the following stats from last Saturday’s stunner.  KSU was just 2-11 on 3rd down while allowing OU to convert on 7-12 of their 3rd downs.  Oklahoma amassed 517 yards of total offense.  Kansas State was penalized 13 times for 108 yards.  When you consider all of that information, it would seem like K-State had no business taking down OU.

But where the Wildcats won that game was by taking the football away four times.  That included three interceptions of OU’s Spencer Rattler.  KSU turned two of those takeaways into touchdowns and sealed the win with a pick on OU’s final drive.

Tech simply can’t let this game follow that script.  That will put the onus on Alan Bowman, who was picked off three times last week and who has accounted for all four of Tech’s giveaways this year.

If Bowman protects the football today, the KSU defense will likely struggle to contain the Red Raider offense.  But if KSU continues to benefit from a bevy of takeaways, it will be hard to envision a win for Matt Wells‘ team this afternoon.

…they play with passion

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This afternoon, the Red Raiders have to figure out how to match last week’s effort.  If they can put enough emotion and passion into this contest as they did into trying to topple Texas, they will have a great shot a being victorious.

The problem is that a Matt Wells team has yet to display that type of character in his tenure.  So far, the Red Raiders are just 2-6 following a loss during his time in charge.

The most alarming of those losses was last year’s 34-24 loss at home to Iowa State.  Coming on the heels of the controversial double-OT loss to Baylor, Tech came out flat against the Cyclones falling into a 20-0 first-half hole before deciding to try to fight back.

That can’t happen again today.  On the heels of last week’s OT loss to the Horns, the Red Raiders can either decide to put that type of effort forth against KSU or they can let last week’s collapse beat them twice.  What they decide on that front will go a long way towards deciding the outcome of this contest.

…special teams are not a liability

If turnovers were not the reason the Red Raiders lost to the Longhorns, then special teams were.  Though Tech did have some bright spots in the kicking game such as a successful onside kick, a blocked punt, and a TD off of a muffed UT punt return, the mistakes the Red Raiders made in that aspect of the game proved to be their undoing.

You simply don’t beat a top-10 team by missing a FG, having a punt blocked, screwing up a “sky kick”, and failing to recover an onside kick.  And this week, Tech likely won’t beat Kansas State if special teams are again a liability.

The difference this week though is that Tech likely won’t need all the huge special teams plays that went their way against Texas to go their way again just to hang in there with KSU.  Rather, the Red Raiders simply need special teams to not be a detriment.

Related Story. A near must-win for Matt Wells. light

Last year, the turning point of the game between Tech and KSU was a 100-yard kickoff return TD by the Wildcats’ Joshua Youngblood.  And it seems like most years, the Red Raiders allow K-State to make game-changing plays in the kicking game.  If that doesn’t happen this time around and the third side of the ball is simply a push today, Tech will be in great shape in their attempts to finally end their woes at Snyder Family Stadium.

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