Texas Tech football: Statistical goals for Red Raiders vs. WVU

Oct 3, 2020; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Henry Colombi (3) takes the snap during a game against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Fewer than 5 yards to go on 3rd down

Playing off of the idea that Tech can’t afford many 3-and-outs, it will be imperative that the Red Raiders avoid many 3rd-and-long situations as well. Thus, an average of five yards to go or fewer on 3rd down is a great goal to aspire to meet.

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That was an area where Tech was awful in their last game. Against Iowa State, the Red Raiders went 0-10 on 3rd down. Their average yards needed was 6.0.

But remember that this weekend, they will have another weapon to use when trying to keep drives alive…Henry Colombi’s feet. A much more mobile player than Alan Bowman, he can move the chains with improvised or even designed runs.

However, Colombi is no Lamar Jackson or Vince Young. He isn’t likely to pick up massive chunks of real estate with his feet and he doesn’t have elite top-end speed. Thus, for his running ability to come into play on 3rd down, Tech will need to keep the distance needed manageable.

On the season, West Virginia is allowing opponents to convert on just 25.9% of their 3rd downs. That’s second in the Big 12.

Meanwhile, on offense, Tech is converting on 45.8% of its 3rd down opportunities. That too is second-best in the conference.

Whichever team has the advantage in that critical aspect of the game will most likely come out on top. And for that to be the Red Raiders, the distance needed to travel can’t be so far that it puts Colombi in obvious passing situations and takes away his ability to use his feet. If Tech can keep the down-and-distance at a manageable level throughout this game, we may see the Red Raider offense do just enough to pick up the win.