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Texas Tech football: The Red Raiders will beat Baylor if…

By Matthew Conner

Oct 31, 2020; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Matt Wells leads the team onto the field before the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 31, 2020; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Matt Wells leads the team onto the field before the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 31, 2020; Lubbock, Texas, USA; A Texas Tech Red Raiders football sits on the field before the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 31, 2020; Lubbock, Texas, USA; A Texas Tech Red Raiders football sits on the field before the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports /

…Baylor doesn’t have a significant advantage in turnovers

Baylor is a bad football team.  But the one area where Aranda’s squad has been best in the Big 12 this year has been in turnovers.

Thus far, the Bears lead the conference in turnover margin at +5.  What’s more, they’ve already forced 10 takeaways, which is tied for third in the league despite the fact that they have played only five games while every other Big 12 team has played at least six and most have played seven.

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Meanwhile, Tech is at the other end of the spectrum in the turnover department.  With a season-long deficit of four turnovers, Tech is second-to-last in the Big 12.

We’ve recently seen just how turnovers can cripple the Red Raiders.  Two games ago, in Tech’s worst showing of the year, OU forced three turnovers to completely overwhelm the Red Raiders after Tech got off to a nice 7-0 start.

If there is any way for Baylor to run away from the Red Raiders today, it would be to do what the Sooners did and bury Tech in an avalanche of takeaways.  Though BU quarterback Charlie Brewer is having his worst statistical year, he’s still more than capable of making teams pay for mistakes and Tech can’t give him extra possessions.

Now, here’s the rub for Baylor when it comes to turnovers.  Even creating extra possessions for the offense isn’t really helping Aranda’s team.

In their only win this year, a 47-14 win over Kansas, Baylor didn’t take the ball away from the Jayhawks once.  That means that none of the turnovers the Bears have created have led to a victory.

Thus, even if Tech does slip up a time or two in this game, all hope is not lost as it was when the turnovers occurred against Oklahoma.  But still, Tech can’t let Baylor have a two or three-turnover edge today because that could tip the balance of this contest.  Rather, if Tech can at least play it even in the turnover department, they should be able to come away with a win.

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