This year’s Texas Tech basketball team falls short of the 2018-2019 team.
After the Texas Tech basketball team got smoked by Baylor in the regular season finale, attention immediately turned to postseason play. The Big 12 tournament is important, of course, but all eyes will be on the NCAA tournament, as the Red Raiders will be making their first appearance in the Big Dance since falling agonizingly short of a national title in 2019.
They probably would’ve made the tournament in 2020 if it had been played, but now they will attempt to put the heartbreaking loss behind them with another deep run. This roster is almost entirely different from the one we all fell in love with two years ago, and while there’s no shortage of talent, there’s one inescapable truth: This team has a ceiling.
The fact that these Red Raiders managed just a 9-8 conference record, compared to a 14-4 mark and conference title in 2019, illustrates that. The Big 12 is plenty tough, but it’s been that way for a few years now. The fact is that when matched up with a premier opponent, this team has fallen short most of the time. That doesn’t bode well in March.
The Numbers
Neither of these two Texas Tech squads were offensive juggernauts, which is fine when you make your name on defense as Chris Beard’s teams have typically done. This team actually scores just a bit more per game than the Final Four team did. But the main difference is this: In 2018-19, Texas Tech was 12th nationally and second in the Big 12 in opponents’ three-point percentage. This year, they’re 248th nationally and dead last in the conference.
I’ll admit the performance we saw from Baylor on Sunday was abnormal, as it’s not often a team will make that many threes even if they’re all open looks. But time after time this season, we’ve seen teams shoot the lights out against Texas Tech, seemingly regardless of how well the Red Raiders defended them. That’s not bad luck — that’s a trend.
Why is this team so bad at defending the perimeter? For one, the 2018-19 team had an elite rim protector in Tariq Owens, so there wasn’t as much of a need to collapse defensively when the ball was moved inside. This year’s team doesn’t have anyone like that, nor do they have the size to match up with taller forwards.
The closest thing these Red Raiders have to a big man is Marcus Santos-Silva, who’s three inches shorter than Owens and only averages half the number of blocks. When you’re giving up size, you need to bring help, and that leaves open opportunities on the perimeter. That’s part of why we’ve seen teams get more open looks than we’re accustomed to.
The other part is these guards just don’t seem to be quite as quick on defense. The trio of Jarrett Culver, Matt Mooney and Davide Moretti could hold their own, with Mooney in particular being a great on-ball defender. There’s no one on this roster as good as Mooney in that regard, and it seems like all of this year’s guards have gotten beat their fair share of times.
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Kryptonite
This Texas Tech team is more than capable of making it to the second weekend in the NCAA tournament, but another Final Four run? I’m not holding my breath. They could get there given the right matchups and some lucky bounces, especially if Kyler Edwards stays hot, but this isn’t a team that’s capable of beating everyone on any given day. This team is good, but it’s flawed.
In particular, if the Red Raiders run into a team that is tough defensively, shoots the three well and has a tall forward who can score, they could be in real trouble. In their attempts to not allow the big man any easy baskets, they would certainly open up some looks for the opponent’s shooters. Even if the opponent doesn’t have a size advantage, if they have multiple shooters and can defend, Texas Tech will have its hands full.
We’ve also seen this team get off to a slow start on offense repeatedly this season, and there have been long stretches where the offense has no flow and seems disjointed. Edwards and Terrence Shannon have disappeared at times, leaving Mac McClung as the only hope. If those three play well, Texas Tech will score enough to win most games. But if one or two of them don’t, the chances get slimmer.
This really illustrates how special and rare that 2019 tournament run was. Teams like that don’t come along very often. It was a special group that’s hard to replicate, which makes the agony of the title game loss that much stronger. It’s so hard to field a team capable of winning a title and even harder to actually win it.
With that being said, this Texas Tech team can still make some noise. I don’t anticipate another Final Four run, but another trip to the Sweet Sixteen is certainly attainable. More than anything, I just hope we come away with some lasting memories and can wash away the sting of that last March Madness loss.