Here’s what the Texas Tech basketball team must do today to beat the Utah State Aggies in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
The last time we saw the Texas Tech basketball team in the NCAA Tournament, we suffered one of the worst kicks to the gut that any sports fandom can sustain. Now, almost two years later, the Big Dance is back and the Red Raiders are once again in the mix.
However, many people are predicting a short stay in Indiana for Tech in 2021. That’s because Utah State, the Red Raiders’ first-round opponent, poses a formidable test.
Interestingly, the ESPN.com Matchup Predictor gives the Red Raiders a 74.7% chance at winning this game yet many experts such as Matt Norlander and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, and ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi, are calling for the No. 11 seeded Aggies to come out on top.
But on the other hand, Tech fans should take heart. Picking upsets is fun and it generates a ton of clicks online. Thus, many such predictions are made in the spirit of the event, which is driven by America’s love of the underdog, rather than because of deep analytical reasoning.
This is a game that I think the Red Raiders will win and there are a number of reasons why. First of all, Utah State isn’t built to exploit Tech’s greatest weakness, its 3-point defense. The Aggies shoot only 33.6% from beyond the arc, which is actually worse than Tech shoots.
Additionally, the Aggies have lost to eight teams from outside of the six major conferences. Meanwhile, every one of Tech’s losses has come to a Quadrant 1 team that is a top-4 seed in this year’s tournament. What’s more, Utah State has just a 2-5 record against Quadrant 1 opponents.
So let’s break down this game and see what the Red Raiders have to do to come out on top. If they can do each of the following, they will likely move on to round two for the third-straight NCAA Tournament.
Don’t obsess over Queta
It will be tough for Texas Tech fans to watch Utah State big man Neemias Queta if he dominates the game the way he’s capable of. But despite the fact that the 7-footer averages 15 points and 10 boards per game, the Red Raiders can’t obsess over him.
Sending too many people at Queta in the post will make life easier on Utah State’s guards and will give them open looks from the outside. And though they aren’t a great shooting team from deep, any NCAA Tournament team can knock down wide-open jumpers.
Though it might seem counterintuitive given that he’s only 6-foot-7, defending a big like Queta is why Chris Beard brought Marcus Santos-Silva into the program. He’s got the strength to play sound positional defense on any big man and if he can keep the back to the basket Queta from getting looks right at the rim, it will make it possible for Tech to at least keep Queta somewhat in check.
But even if Queta has 15-20 points, that won’t be enough to beat the Red Raiders if the rest of the Utah State roster can’t hold up its end of the equation. So Tech might throw the occasional double-team his way but in the end, it would be wise to just play him straight-up and take your chances because devoting too much attention to Queta will make life easy on the USU guards.
Queta might be unstoppable for this Tech team. Therefore, it would be best for the Red Raiders to let him get his but take away what the rest of the USU team wants to do.