Texas Tech football: What might reported conference alliance mean for Tech?

It is being reported by Nicole Auerbach of The Athletic that the PAC 12, Big 10, and ACC are on the verge of announcing an alliance that Auerbach says “isn’t just about scheduling”. Of course, noticeably absent from that equation is the beleaguered Big 12 and that fact puts the future of the Texas Tech football program into even more uncertain territory.

What Auerbach’s article (which is behind a paywall) doesn’t specifically lay out the terms of the alliance between the three conferences, it does imply that the three leagues are vowing to vote together on all issues (such as the expansion of the College Football Playoff) in what feels like a move to try to counteract the SEC’s current powerplay. But what Texas Tech fans want to know is where the Red Raiders will fit in the new landscape of college football. And right now, it’s anyone’s guess.

Some optimistic fans are choosing to believe that this alliance will prompt the involved conferences to expand. And that reasoning makes some sense.

If the SEC is truly trying to form a super conference and break away from the NCAA to be its own entity as many are theorizing, then it would behoove the other conferences to try to block any further SEC expansion by gobbling up as many quality programs as possible.

Right now, the SEC doesn’t have enough teams to form their own super conference, and taking away their most attractive options for further expansion would seem to be the best way for the Big 10, ACC, and PAC 12 to block an SEC power play.

In this scenario, Texas Tech would be in great shape. Of the remaining programs that could be enticing to a major conference, Tech has to be near the top of the list given the university’s presence in Texas and the central time zone, both of which are areas that are incredibly enticing to other conferences.

Also, might this alliance prompt the SEC to consider further expansion beyond Texas and Oklahoma? It is conceivable.

If this game of college football monopoly turns into a race to add teams, Texas Tech might find itself in the catbird seat. Perhaps this scenario would find Tech being courted by more than one major conference and that would certainly be the best-case scenario.

Now, some may say that the thought of Texas Tech getting a seat at the SEC table is nothing more than a pipe dream. But keep in mind the financial benefits for the SEC’s primary media partner, ESPN, should the Big 12 dissolve.

Taking over as the SEC’s television partner beginning in 2024-25, ESPN will be bankrolling the NCAA’s most powerful conference for ten years. That deal is reported to be costing ESPN and its parent company ABC around $3 billion, which is a huge bill for an entity that has recently had financial trouble.

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Thus, the dissolution of the Big 12 would be in ESPN’s best interest. If the league folds, the buyout that each school would owe the conference, which is going to be well north of $140 million combined, would be null and void. And make no mistake, the money for the buyout would, in some form or fashion, come from ESPN.

What’s more, the money ESPN owes the Big 12 for the remainder of its media rights deal would also be off the books. Therefore, finding a way to facilitate the final destruction of the Big 12 might be in ESPN’s best interest and that could work in Tech’s favor.

However, the pessimistic Texas Tech football fan sees this report as a sign that the major conferences are moving on without including any of the eight leftover Big 12 programs. That would certainly be disastrous for the Red Raiders.

If this alliance is enough to convince the three conferences that they are secure enough in their collective strength that they do not need to expand, the Red Raiders could be left out in the cold. What’s more, the Big 12 as a whole could be on the outside looking in.

If a revamped Big 12 ends up being Tech’s best option, the fact that the conference isn’t a part of this alliance would be potentially devastating to the Red Raiders and the league. It could mean that the conference would be unable to schedule teams from the three conferences involved in the alliance and more importantly, it would mean that the Big 12 would have almost no voice in how the game of college football is changing. That would make the Big 12 no better than a Group of 5 conference, a reality that would have massive financial ramifications for its member institutions.

Ultimately, this all feels like a reactionary move by the PAC 12, ACC, and Big 10 to try to block the SEC from taking over college football. And somehow, the fallout from these moves is going to have a major impact on the Texas Tech football program. But whether that impact will be positive or negative remains a mystery.