Texas Tech football: Toss-up games that will be pivotal in 2021

Close games have become a way of life for the Texas Tech football program in recent years  But unfortunately, the majority of those games have turned into defeats.

Since the start of the Kliff Kinsbury era in 2013, Tech is just 13-17 in games decided by seven points or less.  And of those 13 wins, two came against FCS opponents Central Arkansas and Houston Baptist while another came against lowly UTEP.

But the good news is that their trend may have begun to reverse itself last season as Tech was 4-1 in such contests.  That’s the type of progress that Tech needs to build upon in 2021 if the Red Raiders are going to secure their first winning season since 2015.

In the end, Tech’s season will come down to how well the Red Raiders perform in what we like to call toss-up games; contests that on paper could go either way and those games are often the ones that are decided by a touchdown or less.  So let’s take a look at the five tossup games on the Red Raiders’ schedule this year.

@ West Virginia

Like Tech, West Virginia is entering year three of their current head coach’s tenure and as in the case in Lubbock, the natives are a bit restless in Morgantown.  But many are expecting Neal Brown to have a breakthrough season in 2021.

Of course, it helps raise expectations when you return your starting QB as the Mountaineers will.  But thus far, Jarrett Doege has looked like merely an average FBS quarterback.  The fifth-year senior has completed just 63.5% of his passes as a collegiate and the last time we saw him, he was just 15 of 25 passing for a meager 159 yards with one TD and one pick against Army in the Liberty Bowl, a game in which he was benched for Austin Kendall.

Will he improve enough this season to become a difference-maker at the position and not just a bus driver?  That will be the key to the WVU season because the rest of the Mountaineer offense is loaded with experience.

Last year’s offensive line remains nearly intact and they will be blocking for Leddie Brown who amassed 1,010 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground last fall.  But the defense lost a ton of key playmakers from last year’s stout unit including monster nose tackle Darius Stills.

However, his young brother Dante is back after racking up 10.5 sacks a year ago and that should make the Mountaineer defensive line one to be reckoned with.  But the linebacking corps lost leading tackler Tony Fields II and the secondary saw All-American safety Tykee Smith transfer to Georgia.  Thus, the defense that the mountaineers hung their hat on last year won’t be quite the same this fall.

Still, playing in Morgantown is no joke, especially with fans on hand.  Tech has won there only twice but one of those came in 2019, Matt Wells’ first season on the job, a 38-17 triumph.

This year, he will be looking for his second-straight win at WVU and if he secures it, his team would take a huge step towards a winning season.  But don’t expect this game to be as easy as 2019’s win.  In fact, we should probably expect it to come down to one score.