Conference realignment: Now is not the time for the Big 12 to act hastily

The old saying tells us that patience is a virtue. But for some reason, the Big 12 is reportedly not heeding that advice.

I say that because just a day after the PAC-12 announced that it will not expand its ranks at this time, The Atlantic reported that the Big 12 is moving quickly to consider BYU as a potential expansion candidate. That leaves us just one question worth asking: Why so fast?

The simple truth is that, in the wake of the recent conference realignment chaos, the Big 12 needs to take time to lick its wounds and make a strategic plan of action. And given that the conference has known about Texas’ and Oklahoma’s defections for only about a month, there simply hasn’t been enough time for any definitive action steps to be created.

After all, it took OU and Texas a reported six months to broker their deals with the SEC and that was a no-brainer situation for all three entities. So why shouldn’t the Big 12 be cautious with how it proceeds given that the dust hasn’t even settled after the bomb that its two blueblood programs dropped on the college landscape?

Now is not the time to make the mistake of entering into a marriage with BYU or any other program that would have a legitimate interest in joining the Big 12 just for the sake of saving the league. There’s no slam-dunk program that is going to join the ranks and restore the conference’s standing to what it was when Texas and OU were in the fold so there should be time for careful discussion and thoughtful planning on behalf of the eight remaining Big 12 institutions.

For example, we still don’t know exactly when Texas and Oklahoma will be saying goodbye. They’ve told us they want and divorce and they have found a new place to call home but until the papers arrive for everyone to sign, this league will still operate under the current grant of rights deal, one which runs through the end of the 2025 academic year.

The goal for the Big 12 right now should be to find a way to make Texas and OU stay in the fold for as much of that time as possible because doing so will ensure that the most money will be distributed to the league members via its television partners. But once the Horns and Sooners are officially in the SEC, the Big 12 will have to negotiate its media deal and do so from a place a weakness.

Sure, the Big 12 can’t make Texas and OU stay through 2025. But might agreements with other programs make all parties involved more motivated to move forward with a negotiated early exit? It would seem likely as the new institutions would not want to wait to start cashing their Big 12 paychecks.

But such a negotiated parting for UT and OU would mean that the rest of the league members would not get as much money as they are currently set to under the active media rights agreement meaning a substantial financial loss for the current schools that are already having to face the possibility of absorbing some pretty significant financial blows should a Frankensteined version of the Big 12 live on.

Also, there still remains a tremendous chance that other conferences, including the PAC-12, will look to expand by or before 2025. I don’t know why everyone is acting as if Thursday’s PAC-12 announcement is a finality. The key phrase in the release from the conference was “at this time” when regarding the decision to stand pat.

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There are many that believe that the PAC-12 might be almost as vulnerable to poachers as the Big 12 was/is and once that realization sets in out on the west coast, it might spur that league to reconsider expansion in a year or two when they begin to renegotiate their media rights agreements, which expire in 2024.

Furthermore, there is reason to believe that the newly formed alliance between the PAC-12, the Big 10, and the ACC might prompt the SEC to expand even more. If this new college arms race is really about collecting enough institutions to have a majority say in the direction of the sport, then the SEC won’t be able to stop at just 16 institutions.

So ask yourself this as a Texas Tech fan. Would you want to be married to a Big 12 with the eight remaining teams and four mid-level universities when an offer from the PAC-12 or SEC rolls around?

If the Big 12 adds BYU and three other teams, it will have to extend a new grant of rights deal, and breaking that deal early will come with penalties that the university may not be too happy to pay. And that’s not just something Texas Tech should consider but it is a reality that each of the so-called “leftover” programs must entertain.

Now, in fairness, we must accept the risk that such an invitation might never come Tech’s way (and the same can be said for the rest of the eight holdovers in the Big 12). But that fear shouldn’t drive this conference to make a rash decision and start adding schools right away.

Rather, this conference should make certain that the rest of the college athletics landscape is clear before charting a course. And right now, we first have to know when OU and UT will be heading to their new family. Until then, Tech and every other institution in the Big 12 should be patient and not try to rally together for the cause of a conference that is on life support, one that will remain on life support regardless of if any programs are added or not.

Adding teams to the mix right now would be a reactionary move to a generic statement from the PAC-12 and that would be a mistake. Rather, the Big 12 should act as a wise adult and refrain from going on a shopping spree just to make itself feel better after being dumped. That’s because the landscape of college athletics is nowhere near finished in its transformation. Thus, can we at least wait for the shaking to stop before we start to build a new house?