Texas Tech football: 3 predictions for Red Raiders vs. Texas

Today, the Texas Tech football program has an opportunity to make a statement that will be heard around the nation.  Those opportunities are rare.  And so too may be the chance to beat the Texas Longhorns as conference realignment has put the future of the program’s oldest rivalry in doubt.

Maybe that’s why the 2021 version of this series feels weightier than a matchup between two unranked teams should.  But for Texas Tech, any opportunity to beat the hated Horns is important.

Unfortunately, that’s something that has happened only 17 times in 73 all-time meetings.  Still, if Tech is going to start to reassert itself as a contender in the Big 12, games like today’s are going to have to start falling Tech’s way more often.

Over the last two seasons, Tech has failed to produce wins against teams that move the needle in the Big 12, much less on the national scene.  Though this year’s version of the Longhorns is not likely destined for any great accomplishments, beating Texas always opens eyes around the conference and around the nation because, like it or not, UT is a soap opera that the country can’t stop watching.

Thus, Matt Wells and his team can take a massive step forward in their rebuilding efforts.  Beating Texas not only satiates a huge portion of the fan base but it also adds some legitimacy to the season by giving you a win over one of the two marquee teams n the conference.

So though this isn’t a game against a top-shelf Texas team and there are tougher opponents on the upcoming schedule, today’s tilt in Austin still feels massive for this year’s Red Raiders.  So let’s take a look at what we might see unfold this afternoon.

Texas Tech will hold Bijan Robinson below  85 yards rushing

The marquee matchup in this contest will be the top-10 nationally ranked Red Raider rush defense against Texas’ star running back Bijan Robinson.  In fact, the outcome of that clash could be the biggest determinant in how this game plays out.

Robinson has already surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for his Texas career, doing so in just 13 games.  And he appears to be just scratching the surface of what he can become.

Including the three games he’s played this year, Robinson has topped the 100-yard mark in five of his last seven games.  In other words, he’s going to be a tough matchup for Kieth Patterson’s defense.

But this Red Raider defense is going to be up to the task and it will hold Robinson below 85 yards rushing, which would be nearly 15 yards south of his season average. And it will be because of Tech’s strong front-seven.

In years past, Tech has been outmanned in the trenches and in the box when taking on the Longhorns but not this year.  Players such as DTs Jaylon Hutchings and Tony Bradford Jr. give Tech enough muscle in the middle of the line to keep the linebackers clean and allow them to flow to the ball carrier and that should help the defense keep Robinson in check.

Shutting him down will be next to impossible but keeping him from running wild is something that Tech can do today.  So look for a solid effort from the Red Raider front seven, a group that is allowing opponents to rush for just 1.7 yards per carry, to prove the naysayers wrong and keep Texas’ star from having a monster game.