Texas Tech football: 3 predictions for Red Raiders vs. Texas

Big plays will decide this game

Typically, a game that figures to be this close is decided in the red zone.  But today’s game will come down to which team can make big plays and which team can prevent them.  

This is another area where Tech figures to have an advantage.  So far, the Red Raiders rank tied for 4th nationally in plays of 30 yards or more with 12.  Additionally, Tech is tied for 1st in the country in plays of 50 or more yards with seven.  Defensively, Tech has allowed six plays of 30+ yards and only one play of 50 yards or more.

Meanwhile, Texas is far less explosive offensively.  With only six plays of 30+ yards and three plays over 50, the Horns have been forced to grind things out on offense more than Tech has.  But conversely, UT has also allowed only one play of more than 50 yards in 2021.

This is where the Red Raiders have to have an edge.  They are going to be the less likely of the two teams to produce long, sustained drives meaning that they will need to pick up yards in chunks.

Look for this to be where the Tech receivers come up big.  Most especially Erik Ezukanma.

Texas’s defensive strategy is similar to that of teams that play a soft zone in that they want to invite teams to complete short passes and then they want to rally to the ball and make the tackle before the receiver can pick up extra yards.

But we’ve already seen on a number of occasions this year that Ezukanma is a tackle-breaking beast who often can’t be brought down by one defender.  Can he or the other Red Raiders pick up yards after the catch and make Texas pay for playing soft?  If so, Tech should be in for a big offensive showing.

In all, these factors will work out in Tech’s favor and the Red Raiders will come home with a close win in Austin.  Final score prediction: 35-30 Red Raiders.