Texas Tech is in desperate need of a Big 12 win, now 0-5 in league play after squandering a second half lead to Texas on the road on Saturday.
The Red Raiders host Baylor on Tuesday night on the heels of losing another heartbreaker on the road this past weekend to Texas, 72-70. Outside of a 34-point drubbing to Iowa State last Tuesday, Texas Tech has lost its other four Big 12 games by a combined 18 points.
Can they get on track against Baylor, who is starting to look like the team we expected off of back-to-back wins?
Let’s check out the odds with the Red Raiders installed as small favorites.
Baylor vs. Texas Tech odds, spread and total
Baylor vs. Texas Tech prediction and pick
It seems grim for Texas Tech, but this is still a quality team that has competed in four of five Big 12 games. Now at home, they have an opportunity to right the ship against a Baylor team that doesn’t look like the Bears team we have come to expect over the last few years that included a National Championship.
The team is last in Big 12 play in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, struggling to generate turnovers (9th) and contain the paint (10th in two-point percentage allowed). Texas Tech has struggled on offense this season, but they are dominant when they get inside, 22nd in the country on two-point percentage.
The Red Raiders also finally got transfer big man Fardaws Aimaq in the lineup against Texas Tech, and he was effective in 29 minutes, scoring 12 points. The Utah Valley transfer can continue to lift this TTU offense up, but the defense may be a concern against Baylor, who is dangerous from the perimeter, shooting over 36% from deep and starting to look the part of an elite offense in Big 12 play, posting the best adjusted offensive efficiency metric.
Texas Tech’s defense hasn’t been as elite as years past, but I don’t trust this Baylor defense to keep a lid on them given its recent play. In Lubbock with their backs against the wall I believe we see the Red Raiders get it going, but I’m not going to trust them to get the cover at over a bucket.
Instead, I’ll look for the over given the pace of Baylor’s recent games and its poor defense.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.