Unless you are the loved one of a third-stringer on an FBS program, there’s no way you can enjoy games between teams from the upper level of the sport and FCS teams. It’s ridiculous that FBS vs. FCS matchups have become expected from almost every program in the nation as they are usually wastes of time for fans and provide nothing in the way of value other than getting to work some backups into game action. However, the Texas Tech football team must treat today’s contest against FCS opponent Tarleton State with urgency.
After all, FCS teams have been known to pull off stunning upsets with more regularity in recent years. If that happens to the Red Raiders tonight at home, it will be cause for tremendous alarm.
A win this week is imperative if Joey McGuire’s program wants to sustain the momentum that was created last year in an 8-5 campaign. Should Tech fail to pick up the season’s first win tonight, the Red Raiders would have to go 8-2 the rest of the year just to match 2022’s win total. They would also have to go 6-3 in Big 12 play just to reach a bowl game.
Of course, the overwhelming majority of people expect a big win for McGuire and Co. in this game. However, the nature of a game against an FCS team is that it is a no-win situation.
Everything Tech does well tonight will be met with something to the effect of “Yeah, but it was against Tarleton”. Meanwhile, anything that doesn’t go according to plan will be scrutinized and fretted over with even more intensity than normal.
Still, this game is important because it is the final opportunity for Tech to work out the kinks before Big 12 play begins next week at West Virginia. Also, this is the beginning of a four-game stretch that could reset this season’s trajectory.
Opening conference play against the WVU, Houston, and Baylor, Tech might be the favorite in all four games until Kansas State comes to Lubbock on October 14. Running through the next month’s worth of games undefeated would help the Red Raiders right the ship after a 0-2 start and set up an opportunity for them to be relevant in the conference race in November.
That starts by taking care of business against Tarleton. Though this game doesn’t appear intriguing on paper, it will be worth paying attention to because there are some things we need to see from Texas Tech in the final non-conference tuneup of the year.
Texas Tech needs someone other than Myles Price or Jerand Bradley to show up in the passing game
Thus far, 43% of the receiving yards Tech has amassed have gone to either Myles Price or Jerand Bradley. That needs to change tonight.
With 171 yards on the year, Bradley is the only player on the roster over 100 yards receiving. Price is close with 96. No other Red Raider has over 73 yards through the air.
The outside receivers that man the “X” position, opposite of Bradley, have been complete nonfactors. Jordan Brown and Loic Fouonji have just three receptions for 71 yards between them and neither caught a pass against Oregon last week. Will that change tonight?
Also, let’s see if Drey McCray can finally shake loose against Tarleton. The inside receiver has six catches for 71 yards thus far but he’s not been able to showcase his speed. Not getting enough separation to get behind the secondary and not finding himself with the ball in space very often, his run-after-the-catch ability has been negated through two games.
McCray was brought in to bring an extra element of explosiveness to an offense that was sorely lacking that aspect a season ago. Offensive coordinator, Zach Kittley, must find a way to put the diminutive speedster in positions to make a greater impact than he has thus far.
Maybe, now that he’s healthy and back to game action, Nehemiah Martinez can be another weapon for Tech in the slot. Last week, he saw his first action of the season and made a ridiculous 31-yard grab on Tech’s final drive of the game.
Last year, he had 32 catches for 394 yards and a pair of TDs. Look to see if he is able to make an impact in this game after an off-season injury to his orbital bone caused him to miss the Wyoming game.
Whomever it may be, Tech needs a third (and preferably 4th) wide receiver to step forward and prove to be a reliable option for QB Tyler Shough. Tech’s offense hasn’t hit its stride yet and that is due, in large part, to the struggles of the receivers other than Price or Bradley. Look to see if that can begin to change tonight.
The Texas Tech pass rushers must start to make an impact
Texas Tech also isn’t going to have much success in the Big 12 if opposing quarterbacks are going to continue to be allowed to have enough time to read the Saturday edition of the Avalanche-Journal each time they drop back to pass. If this defense can’t manage to make life miserable for Tarleton’s QB, then will any opponent this year fear the Red Raider pass rush?
So far, Tech has only three sacks as a team. What’s more, the only one that came at an important time was Jaylon Hutching’s sack against Wyoming to stymie the Cowboys’ attempt for a game-winning drive on the final possession of regulation in week one.
Where have Myles Cole and Steve Linton been? Both were uber-hyped this offseason after reportedly dominating spring and fall practices.
Neither player has been able to get to the QB this season, though. In fact, no Red Raider edge rusher has been credited with a full sack through two games.
Maybe Joseph Adedire can get into the backfield tonight. He’s been hampered by a shoulder injury but regardless, Tech needs more for a young player who surprised with 3.5 tackles for loss and 1.0 sacks in nine games last fall as a true freshman.
If the Red Raider edge rushers can generate consistent pressure on their own, defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter will have no choice but to bring extra pressure in the form of blitzes and as we learned on the 4-down TD that Wyoming scored on their second OT possession against Tech, that’s a dangerous way to live.
So keep an eye on the Red Raider edge rushers tonight. That group must figure out how to finally get after the passer after struggling to do so thus far in 2023.
It needs to be Tajh Brooks’ time again for Texas Tech
This is a matchup that Tech should dominate on both sides of the line of scrimmage. That means that Tahj Brooks should be able to run the ball tonight behind the Red Raider O-line.
This team won’t live up to its full potential if Shough continues to be its leading rusher. Though he is effective when he runs, he is not going to take over a game with his legs. He’s not Vince Young or Lamar Jackson. His rushing shouldn’t be the focal point of a team’s ground game.
Rather, Shough’s carries should be timely and impactful. They should come as a bit of a surprise rather than being what Tech turns to when everyone in the stadium knows what’s coming as was the case last week on the ill-fated 4th-and-two play deep in Tech territory that saw Shough stuffed at the line on a keeper.
Against Tarleton, there should be no reason for Shough to be exposed to extra contact. Now, he is going to run the ball. This week, Kittley said that Shough likes to call his own number at the line and audible into run plays for himself. Kittley even thinks that contact helps settle his senior QB down.
However, we all know about Shough’s injury history. Remember, last year he broke his collarbone on a rush attempt against FCS opponent Murray State. So why risk that same fate tonight unless it is absolutely necessary?
Kittley also notes this week that opposing teams are playing quite a bit of eight-man fronts to try to take Brooks out of the game plan. Tonight, if Tarleton does that, Tech should still bang away with their sledgehammer of a running back.
Brooks could be one of the better backs in the Big 12 but he has to get more than the nine per game he’s averaged this season. So let’s see if Tech can commit more fully to the traditional running attack and make it Tahj time again.
Let’s see if Texas Tech can play a clean game finally
Unfortunately, both of the games Texas Tech has played this year have been marred by sloppy mistakes. Against Tarleton, it will be time to clean that up.
First of all, it would be refreshing for Shough to have a clean game in terms of turnovers. He’s been responsible for all five of Tech’s giveaways this year and that can’t continue to be the case for the Red Raiders’ starting quarterback.
This is a game in which Shough must know that he doesn’t have to take risks. Tech should have enough talent to beat Tarleton without having to throw caution to the wind.
There shouldn’t be any moments when Shough feels the need to do too much while under pressure or make a risky throw down the field. If he can understand that as long as every possession ends in a kick of some kind, his team will be just fine, he should have a clean game.
Also, let’s look to see if this team can stop the needless and untimely penalties that have cost them this year. Tech has to stop hitting people out of bounds, stop getting called for hands to the face, and stop hurting themselves with mental mistakes.
In 2023, McGuire’s team is averaging 6.5 penalties per game. That’s not an egregious number but it could be better.
Mental mistakes should start to decline by the third game of the year. This is the 1/4 mark of the season and next week, business picks up with the start of Big 12 action. It’s time for Tech to put together its first clean game of the year in terms of turnovers and mental miscues.
Texas Tech needs to figure out how to generate turnovers again
DeRuyter wants his defense to generate three takeaways each week. That’s why “Take 3” is the mantra for that side of the ball.
Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened yet this year. In fact, the Red Raiders haven’t even taken the ball away three total times so far.
After failing to manage even one takeaway against Oregon, the defense must be examining what isn’t working in that department. There may be plenty of factors.
The lack of a pass rush is likely tops among them. We saw what Oregon’s pass rush was able to force Shough into last week but Tech has yet to have a game where its defense has had a similar impact.
Of course, credit has to go to the Ducks as well. They played a solid game and didn’t even come close to putting the ball in harm’s way.
Tarleton shouldn’t be that type of team tonight. The Texans turned the ball over three times in their opener against McNeese while fumbling once more, and then, they had two turnovers (one INT and one fumble lost) last week against North Alabama.
Tech has to become a ball-hawking defense again starting tonight. Perhaps senior safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson will find a way to make a big play as he’s done so often in his career.
With six picks and three fumble recoveries to his name as a Red Raider, the man they call “Rabbit” is a playmaker and he could be the one who provides the spark for the Red Raiders when it comes to generating takeaways. Keep an eye on this aspect of the game tonight because this is where the Red Raiders have to improve ahead of conference play.
Prediction:
This is a game that Tech should come into angry. That would negate any element of surprise and take away the “trap game” worries.
When you are 0-2, no game should be taken for granted and the Red Raiders will put forth a winning effort tonight. Though nothing this team does against Tarleton will earn the Red Raiders any respect, this is a night where some confidence is regained and some mistakes are ironed out ahead of next week’s conference opener.