Though the 2023 Texas Tech football season is not off to the start that anyone in Raiderland expected, there is plenty left on the table this fall. Most importantly, the dreams of a Big 12 title are still alive.
Sure, at just 1-2 on the year, Tech is no longer a trendy pick to reach the conference championship game. However, the Big 12 journey is only beginning in earnest this week and with each game, teams will rise and fall in the minds of observers and fans.
Of course, it was fun to hear people talk about Joey McGuire’s team being a darkhorse College Football Playoff contender throughout the offseason. Now, with that dream dead, some fans might have lost a significant portion of their enthusiasm for what this season could hold.
However, the possibility of a Big 12 Championship should also thrill people in scarlet and black. That’s because it has been a remarkably long time since this program has won a conference championship.
The last time Tech won a conference title was in 1994 when the Red Raiders shared the league crown with Texas. However, people in College Station like to point out that the Aggies actually had the best record in the Southwest Conference that season (6-0-1) but they were on probation thus allowing Tech and UT to share first place at 4-3 in SWC play.
That puts Tech’s conference championship drought at 28 seasons. What’s more, the last time the program won an outright conference crown was 1976. However, that is far from the length of Iowa State’s current drought.
Remarkably, the Cyclones have not won a conference championship since 1912. That’s one of the longest droughts in the NCAA.
However, Iowa State can claim something that Tech can’t. The Cyclones have at least played for the Big 12 title. In 2020, they fell to Oklahoma 27-21 in Arlington, Texas as they fell just short of ending over a century’s worth of disappointment.
Tech, on the other hand, has never appeared in the Big 12 Championship game. In 2002, Kliff Kingsbury had a chance to QB his team to the conference title game by winning the regular-season finale at Oklahoma but the Red Raiders were destroyed 60-15 by the No. 4 Sooners resulting in a third-place finish in the Big 12 South.
2005 saw Tech finish second in the South division with a 6-2 record. Unfortunately, that year saw Texas go 8-0 in league games to win the South on their way eventually winning the National Championship.
Even the best Red Raider team of the Mike Leach era, the 2008 squad, couldn’t get to the Big 12 title game. That year, Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma finished in a three-way tie in the South meaning that the BCS rankings determined the team that would represent the South in the title game, an opportunity that went to the Sooners.
Since then, Tech hasn’t come close to playing for the conference crown. Since the conference reinstated the title game in 2017 after a six-year hiatus, the Red Raiders’ best finish in the league was last season’s fourth-place finish.
This year, Tech hopes to finally get a shot at winning an elusive conference title. That’s a dream that is entirely attainable, even if most people are off of the Red Raider bandwagon. So let’s look at some reasons to believe that Tech could still make a run in the Big 12 this year even after a disappointing non-conference showing.
Texas Tech can make a run because the Big 12 conference isn’t very strong this year
Many around the country have been quick to point out the irony in the fact that the Big 12 only has two ranked teams after three weeks (Texas and OU) while the conference it raided this offseason, the PAC-12, has eight teams in the top 25.
Of course, conference realignment is more about television viewership numbers and boardroom negotiations than success on the football field for one individual season. However, the fact that the Big 12 is almost entirely absent from the polls is a sign that the journey through the conference schedule this year is not as daunting as it might be in other years.
Kansas State and TCU, two teams that opened the year in the polls, each dropped their one non-conference Power 5 test making both appear beatable. Still, there are currently three undefeated teams that Tech is set to eventually meet (BYU, Kansas, and UCF). However, none of those teams are ranked even after 3-0 starts.
Tech doesn’t have to run through a murderer’s row of teams to have a strong conference record this year. In fact, until the team goes to Austin in the regular-season finale on Thanksgiving weekend, the Red Raiders will not be a significant underdog in any game and will likely be favored in more than half of their league contests.
While running through the schedule until the Texas game will be tough, Tech has a chance to do just that given how mediocre the league is in 2023. This year, some under-the-radar team is likely going to run off a winning streak to push toward the top of the league standings come November.
Tech has to be a realistic contender to be that team given how solid the roster is. After all, isn’t it about time that the Red Raiders finally become the team that catches lightning in a bottle for once?
The schedule sets up well for Texas Tech to make a run
There were certainly some reasons not to like the way Tech’s non-conference schedule was set up. Opening in Laramie, Wyoming at an altitude of over 7,500 feet was less than ideal. Then, taking on No. 13 Oregon just one week later was a tough task. That meant that the Red Raiders didn’t get to work out the kinks against an FCS team until the season’s third game.
However, that part of the season is over, and now, the Big 12 schedule actually sets up well. That’s another reason the Red Raiders could be in the conference title mix in November.
First of all, there are no back-to-back road tilts in league play. (Of course, there are also no back-to-back home games either.)
Also, the two best teams Tech will face outside of the Longhorns, Kansas State and TCU, each come to Lubbock this year. Now, the Red Raiders haven’t managed to beat either one of those programs at Jones Stadium since 2015’s win over the Wildcats. Still, having each of the purple teams playing in Lubbock is more advantageous than having to play them on the road.
That isn’t to say that the road games that lie ahead are automatic wins. Beating West Virginia, Kansas, BYU, Texas, and even Baylor away from West Texas will require the Red Raiders to play better than they have so far this year.
However, those teams are all beatable and Tech has a roster that, on paper, measures up with any outside of Texas. Also, keep in mind that Tech doesn’t have to face the Sooners this season, meaning that the second of the conference’s two ranked teams won’t be a roadblock to a potential conference title game appearance in 2023.
It is sad to see that the round-robin format that defined the Big 12 for over a decade is no longer possible. The death of that format means that some teams are going to get a boost from the schedule makers each year (this year, that team is Oklahoma).
Tech didn’t get a breeze through the Big 12 in 2023 but the schedule is manageable. It is one that is balanced but doesn’t require any herculean feats of Joey McGuire’s team until likely the final game of the regular season.
Texas Tech hasn’t played its best football yet
There is no doubt that Texas Tech has improved from week to week in 2023. What we saw against Oregon was a step up from the slog that was the Wyoming game, for instance.
That’s why it is easy to believe that the Red Raiders’ best football is ahead of them. After all, we saw last season that McGuire and his coaching staff have the capability of improving their team’s performance as the season progresses.
Remember that last fall, Tech began just 2-4 in Big 12 games. However, a three-game winning streak to end the regular season pushed Tech to 5-4 in conference play, the first time since 2009 that the program finished over .500 in the Big 12.
During last fall’s season-ending winning streak, the Red Raiders saw improvement almost across the roster even when a star such as defensive end Tyree Wilson was lost for the year. However, if Tech wants to compete for the Big 12 this year, a slow start to conference play can’t be in the cards again.
Fortunately, Tech is playing three very winnable games to open league action this year. West Virginia, Houston, and Baylor combine for a record of just 4-5 with WVU being the only one from that group over .500.
Though two of those first three league games are on the road, Tech should expect to win each. Doing so would set up a crucial game with Kansas State in Lubbock on October 14, a game that could eliminate either Tech or the Wildcats from title contention.
Tech is going to have a chance to pick up momentum and figure out its winning formula against three of the worst teams in the conference right off the bat. If the Red Raiders can put the pieces together over the next three weeks, then confidence should be high entering the back half of October which could mean that Tech might be playing its best football down the stretch for the second year in a row.
The Texas Tech defense is solid
Yes, this year’s Texas Tech defense is flawed. It hasn’t yet been able to generate a consistent pass rush and the turnovers have been tougher to come by than many expected.
Still, that side of the ball is this team’s best. So if the old cliche about defense winning championships is true, Tech could make a run in the Big 12.
Sure, the only two FBS teams Tech has faced have topped the 30-point mark. That’s why the defense might not appear very solid at first glance.
However, keep in mind that Wyoming scored only 20 points in regulation against Tech and Oregon scored only 31 offensive points in Lubbock. What’s more, Joey McGuire’s failed 4th-down gamble deep in his team’s own territory against the Ducks led directly to three more points. Thus, in reality, Oregon scored only 28 true points on the Tech defense.
Through three games, Tech has given up just 18 points per game in regulation. That’s a very respectable showing by DC Tim DeRuyter’s side of the ball.
What’s more, on Monday, McGuire gave us the good news that the defense is getting healthier. DE Joseph Adedire and safety Tyler Owens, two key players for the Red Raiders, will return to action this week after sitting out the Tarleton game with injuries.
Also, in a few more weeks, starting middle LB, Jacob Rodriguez will return from a sprained foot. That means that the defense could be back to full strength by the time the pivotal KSU game rolls around.
The unfortunate reality may be that Tech’s offense may not ever be elite this year. The QB position is a question mark and the offense lacks weapons with explosiveness. Also, the offensive line is a work in progress at best.
So the defense might have to carry the Red Raiders through the Big 12 schedule. Thankfully, that’s something that it might be capable of doing.
Joey McGuire will get the most out of Texas Tech
There’s no way to deny that Joey McGuire is far from a proven commodity as a college head coach. That’s why some outside of the Red Raider fan base might still be waiting to give him the benefit of the doubt, especially after a 1-2 start to the year.
Still, Texas Tech football fans believe that McGuire has an innate ability to get the best out of his team. That’s another reason to think that Tech could be a surprise in the Big 12.
Last season, Tech was out-played from an effort standpoint in only one game, the 45-17 loss to Baylor in Lubbock. Outside of that, McGuire got the most out of his roster on a weekly basis.
While that didn’t lead to a win each week, it did mean that Tech was able to hold second-half leads at Oklahoma State and TCU, two teams that were ranked 7th nationally when they faced the Red Raiders. That was also the reason why Tech beat Texas, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss, three teams that were considered more talented than McGuire’s.
McGuire is a master motivator. He gets his players to buy in and that’s something that his predecessors weren’t able to do.
Neither Matt Wells nor Kliff Kingsbury were able to get their rosters to live up to their full potential. In fact, each seemed to have a knack for draining the fight out of his team, especially as the season wore on.
McGuire is so much more effervescent than either Kingsbury or Wells and that seems to rub off on his team. Last year, the Red Raiders played their tails off week in and week out and that led to some unexpected wins. If McGuire can continue to instill that culture in his team this season, Tech could fight its way to a Big 12 title game appearance.