Texas Tech football: Statistical categories to watch as Red Raiders visit Baylor

Though the series between the Texas Tech football team and Baylor has been rather lopsided in favor of the Bears for some time (Baylor is 9-3 since 2011), there have been some rather memorable games between these two teams during that time.  Could we be in for another nail-biter on Saturday night?  Given the similarities between these two teams, that seems more likely than not.

If that happens, it will continue a trend that has seen three of the last four games between these schools decided by three points or fewer.  In 2021, the Red Raiders battled back from a 10-point deficit in the final quarter only to see Jonathan Garibay miss a would-be game-tying field goal of 53 yards on the last play of the game as the Bears won 27-24 in Waco.

The year prior, during the strange COVID-19 season of 2020, Garibay would play the role of hero on the game’s last snap by hitting a 24-yard field goal to give Tech a 24-23 win in Lubbock.  That game was famous for the massive hit Tech linebacker Colin Schooler planted on Baylor QB Charlie Brewer at the goal line to prevent a touchdown.

Not only was that one of the biggest thumps ever laid on an opponent by a Tech defender, but it also saved four critical points as the Bears would have to settle for a field goal on that drive when it looked like Brewer was headed for the endzone to put his team ahead 27-12.

Unfortunately, the 2019 game will forever be remembered as the game in which the Big 12 officials robbed the Red Raiders of a critical road win in Waco.  That day, Tech recovered a fumble in the first overtime period but the play was mistakenly ruled to have not counted because of an “illegal snap” by the Bear’s center.

Bayor would go on to win that game 33-30 in two overtimes to prevent the Red Raiders from knocking off the No. 22 Bears.  After the game, the Big 12 would admit to Texas Tech AD Kirby Hocutt that the officials’ decision was incorrect and that Tech should have been awarded the fumble recovery.

Though Joey McGuire was on the Baylor sidelines for all of those games, one-score games like that have become the norm for Tech under his watch as well.  Thus far, seven of the 18 games he’s coached with the Red Raiders have been decided by eight points or less.

That’s why it would shock no one to see this year’s game with the Bears come down to the wire as well.  If that happens, the following statistical categories could play a huge role in determining who is able to pick up the victory.