Texas Tech football: Predictions for Red Raiders vs. Baylor

Final Score: Texas Tech 37- Baylor 27

I have to admit that there is a part of me that is nervous about predicting a double-digit road win for a Joey McGuire Texas Tech team.  After all, he’s just 1-6 on the road thus far at Tech, and that lone win was just a 14-10 triumph over a bad Iowa State team last November.

What’s more, Tech is yet to win at McLane Stadium since it opened.  Additionally, the Red Raiders are just 3-9 against Baylor in the last 12 years.

Still, when I look at the two rosters, I just think Tech’s is better.  Also, the 2-3 record that Tech has posted is better than the 2-3 record Baylor has amassed thus far.

The Bears’ loss to a non-Power 5 school was a complete dud.  Losing at home by 11 points to Texas State is inexcusable under any circumstances.  Meanwhile, Tech’s two-point loss to Group of 5 school Wyoming, on the road, was far easier to explain and comprehend.

Additionally, Tech’s 8-point loss to Oregon now looks much better than Baylor’s 7-point loss to Utah.  The Ducks were at full-strength when they won in Lubbock and they currently sit at No. 8 in the A.P. Poll.  On the other hand, when Baylor lost to Utah in Waco, the Utes were without their starting QB rendering their offense almost punchless.  What’s more, Utah is just hanging on to a spot in the top 25 sitting at No. 18.  Ultimately, the Utes are not a playoff contender like Oregon is.

What might make this game a tight affair is if Shapen plays his best and Morton struggles.  That’s going to be the X-factor tonight.

I’m not that impressed with Shapen as a QB but as a competitor, he’s as tough as they come, and sometimes, players like that rise up to propel their team to a win in rivalry games.  Also, Morton is still an unproven commodity.  Though he has far more natural talent than Shapen, we don’t know what version of Morton we are going to get on a weekly basis.

With all of that said, Tech has the better defense, the better run game, and an offensive line that is at least equal to Baylor’s.  I don’t really see any position group on the BU roster that has a decided edge over the Red Raiders.

This game will be tightly contested for most of the night but in the end, Tech will score a late TD to earn a 37-27 win in Waco, a victory that would mean the world to McGuire and everyone on his staff with ties to the Baylor program.