Texas Tech football: QB play, O-line, coaching strategy must be solid to beat BYU

Texas Tech can’t live and die by the analytics book

Love it or hate it, Joey McGuire is going to abide by the literal analytics book that his coaching staff considers to be its game-day gospel.  However, if there was ever a game in which common sense should trump analytics, it would be this one.

Analytics is a concept designed to make decisions easier by boiling everything down to percentages.  However, the shortcoming of that approach is the absence of reason.

Analytics don’t take into account factors such as whether your defense is fatigued after a long drive, what direction the wind is blowing, or whether or not you are relying on an injured or freshman QB.  In other words, analytics don’t account for some of the biggest factors that should go into a decision.

That’s why McGuire has to be wise enough to abandon his book and make common-sense judgments this week.  He can’t give a pedestrian BYU offense a boost by asking Strong to pick up a fourth-down conversion in Tech’s own end of the field.  He can’t take risks like that because the factors that will define this game go beyond just the statistical probabilities of outcomes.

McGuire has one of the best punters in the nation, Austin McNamara.  He needs to be willing to have more confidence in the senior than he does in either a banged-up or inexperienced QB.

This could be a game where field position is key.  Giving the opposition a short field could be disastrous and McGuire has to take that into account.

This year, BYU has attempted twelve 4th-down conversions, that’s middle of the pack in the Big 12.  Tech has attempted 22, most in the Big 12.  On Saturday night, it would be wise for Tech to keep its 4th-down aggression in check unless absolutely necessary.  McGuire has to manage this game using his common sense and not some book of statistical probabilities.