It may be hard to wrap your brain around the fact that the Texas Tech basketball season begins Monday night when Jackson State comes to Lubbock. With the season set to begin, Red Raiders everywhere are learning about the latest version of the program, one that features nine players who were not with the program a season ago and eight who are first-time Red Raiders.
Last week, we got a glimpse of what to expect when the Red Raiders took on Kentucky in an exhibition game. Tech came up short that night, 76-65, and the main reason was a poor shooting effort from beyond the arc. It was a reminder that this team will live and die by the 3-ball in the early going, with JT Toppin still rehabbing his torn knee ligament.
On paper, the 3-point shot should carry the Red Raiders all season. Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams, Cruz Davis, and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn all shot better than 40% from deep a season ago.
It wasn't as if those numbers were misleading, either. All four of those players attempted at least 5.8 shots from deep per game in 2025-26, meaning that they were extremely accurate despite being high-volume 3-point shooters.
But against Kentucky, the 3s did not fall. Tech was just 8-30 (26.7%) as a team, meaning Tech only made one more 3-pointer than Kentucky, which went 7-24. That recipe won't work.
For the Red Raiders to beat good teams early in the season, the 3-ball will have to be the great equalizer. That's because this year's squad will likely enter the season missing its two top big men.
With Toppin out, Tech won't have a post player capable of taking over games on the blocks. What's more, his absence will decrease the space the outside shooters have since teams won't feel the need to double-team any of the Red Raiders' big men.
Additionally, it is likely that the Red Raiders will begin the year without fifth-year UCF transfer forward Jamichael Stillwell, who is still seeking a court injunction to play this season. At 6-foot-8 and 245 pounds, he's a bull in the paint who averaged 11.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per game last year.
While Stillwell isn't likely to generate his own offense in the post the way Toppin does, he is a great rebounder who can score on second-chance opportunities and help the Red Raiders have a post presence. What's more, he is expected to be Tech's top post defender, so if he is sidelined, opposing big men may have big days against the Red Raiders. That was the case with Kentucky's Malachi Moreno, a 7-footer who scored 15 points in the exhibition game.
Texas Tech must have an edge from 3-point range to be competitive early on
The problem for the Red Raiders is that this year's non-conference schedule is loaded. Head coach Grant McCasland has set his team up to play several high-quality opponents who will have a size edge.
For instance, No. 3 Illinois comes to Lubbock in the third game of the season. The Illini have five players 6-foot-9 or taller, with two of those big men standing over 7 feet. That duo, the Ivisic brothers, averaged a combined 16.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game in 2025-26. Additionally, 6-foot-9, 250-pound Illini forward David Mirkovic is coming off of a season that saw him put up 13.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per game as a freshman.
Then, the week of Thanksgiving, Tech will be in Las Vegas to take on No. 11 Louisville in the Players Era Sixteen. The Cardinals have six players 6-foot-8 or taller, including Kansas transfer Flory Bidunga, who averaged 13.3 points and 9.0 rebounds a season ago. He'll pair with 6-foot-8 forward LJ Wells (15.0 points and 7.3 rebounds per game last season) to form one of the best frontcourts in the country.
When Tech and No. 21 USC meet in Fort Worth on December 13, the Trojans will have three formidable big men to deal with: 6-foot-10 Jacob Cofie, 6-foot-10 Joshua Hughes, and 7-foot-1 Eric Reibe, who combined to average 25.1 points and 14.8 rebounds per game last season.
Then, Tech will round out the non-conference portion of the schedule against No. 2 Duke in New York City on December 21. The Blue Devils will be led by 6-foot-11 freshman Cameron Williams, a 5-star signee, and 7-foot-2 4-star freshman signee Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje. Oh, and they also bring back 6-foot-11 junior center Patrick Ngongba, who posted 10.1 points and 5.8 rebounds in 2025-26.
In other words, Tech can expect to go into these high-profile non-con games with a size disadvantage, even if Stillwell is cleared to play. So the plan for the Red Raiders will have to be to outshoot these bigger teams.
The pieces are in place to do so. But if the shots don't fall, as was the case in Kentucky, the offense will struggle to keep pace. Hopefully, what took place against the Wildcats was just an off night. That's because this team will live or die by the 3-pointer early in the season.
Add us as a preferred source on Google