The Texas Tech basketball team is coming off of loss number six on the season, a 69-66 setback against TCU in Fort Worth on Tuesday night. And in that game, a familiar story unfolded for the Red Raiders.
Thus far in 2024-25, Tech has yet to be blown out of a game. The Red Raiders' biggest loss of the year was their nine-point loss at Arizona. In fact, their average margin of defeat has been just 3.8 points.
Thus, in each one of those defeats, seemingly small things have become magnified. What's more, one critical aspect of the game has played a major role in five of Texas Tech's losses.
Texas Tech has lost the free-throw battle in five of its losses
As was the case on Tuesday night, in five of Tech's six losses this season, the Red Raiders have been on the short end of the free-throw battle. As you can imagine, in games that come down to the wire, that's a huge problem.
The only loss in which Tech outscored its opponent at the free-throw line was the 85-84 loss in Lubbock to then-No. 3 Iowa State on January 11. That day, both teams shot 24 free throws with Tech making 19 and ISU making 17. (Of course, in that game, the foul line still came into play as Tech missed three untimely free throws down the stretch.)
Other than that, Tech has had a deficit in free-throw attempts and free-throw makes in its other five losses.
Against St. Joseph's on November 21, Tech was 17-20 from the line while the Hawks were 20-29. In a game that ended 78-77, those three extra free-throw makes were crucial for the victors.
When the Red Raiders lost to Texas A&M 72-67 on December 8, Tech was 9-12 from the line while A&M was 13-18. Though the four-point difference in free-throw scoring didn't make up the entire margin of defeat, the fact that the Aggies got six more attempts from the line in that game played a crucial role.
When Tech dropped the Big 12 opener to UCF on New Year's Eve in Lubbock, 87-83, the Red Raiders shot 14-18 from the line while UCF was 19-22. That free-throw disparity ultimately turned the game in the Knight's favor.
In Arizona on February 8, an 83-72 loss, the Red Raiders were just 9-10 from the line while the Wildcats were 18-23. Once again, that night the free-throw line disparity was the difference in the final score.
That brings us to Tuesday night. In the loss to the Horned Frogs, Tech was only 5-8 at the line while TCU was 15-22. Thus, in four of the Red Raiders' six losses, the final margin of defeat was equal to or less than the disparity in scoring at the free-throw line.
Do the referees have something against Texas Tech?
Some fans may see these numbers and think that the Red Raiders are being treated unfairly by the officials. After all, in these six games, Tech is -46 in free-throw attempts and -29 in free-throw makes.
However, the reality is that there have been times this year when Tech has had the benefit of the whistle. In the win at Houston, the Red Raiders shot seven more free throws than the Cougars and made six more. That was huge in a one-point overtime win.
What is more likely the cause of this disparity is the Red Raiders' style of play. This year, the Red Raiders are relying more heavily on the 3-point shot than the program typically has.
Tech is averaging 27.5 3-point attempts per game which is 71st-most in the nation. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders' opponents are averaging just 20 three-point tries per contest. Almost every basketball fan knows that the more outside shots a team takes, the less likely that team is to get to the free-throw line and that's been the case for Tech this season.
In Big 12 games, Tech has shot the second-most 3-pointers of any team in the conference (394). Only BYU has hoisted more (412).
On the other hand, though, Tech is only 10th in the league in free-throw attempts in Big 12 play (274). And for the entire season, the Red Raiders' opponents are getting to the line 1.2 more times per game.
The reality is that Tech has a bevy of 3-point snipers on the roster with four players in the regular rotation shooting 35.8% or better from beyond the arc. However, only JT Toppin and Darrion Williams average more than three free throws per game.
In other words, Tech's guards would rather shoot from the outside than try to drive to the rim. That's not the case for every guard. For example, West Virginia's Javon Small has 140 free-throw attempts this season while UCF's Keyshawn Hall has attempted 161. Tech's top guard in free-throw attempts is Chance McMillian who has just 74 on the season.
For the most part, Tech has found that it can make up for a free-throw disparity by being elite from 3-point range. However, there have been times this year, as was the case on Tuesday night, when Tech is only average from beyond the arc and those are the nights when the free-throw line comes into play in a major way.
As March approaches, it will be interesting to see if Tech puts a greater emphasis on getting to the line. If that happens and the free-throw numbers even out, then Tech will be an extremely tough out in the Big Dance. But if the disparity continues, that could be what eventually undoes the Red Raiders.