It has been a long time since a Texas Tech football team played meaningful games in November. Sure, many times in recent memory, the program has been in a position to earn bowl eligibility in the season's final month but not since 2013 has Tech been a factor in the Big 12 race in November.
This year, though, the Big 12 is up for grabs. Thus, despite the fact that the Red Raiders have lost two conference games, there's still a path to the conference title game for Joey McGuire's team.
So how can Tech get to Arlington, Texas to play for the league title and a spot in the 12-team playoff? Let's take a look at what would have to happen.
Texas Tech must win all of its remaining games
The only factor the Red Raiders can control is winning the rest of their games. That must happen if there is to remain any hope of a conference title game run.
Tech sits at 4-2 in Big 12 play. That's tied for third with Kansas State.
BYU leads the way with a 5-0 conference record. Given that they play Utah, Kansas, Arizona State, and Houston to end the regular season, it seems likely that they will run the table in the regular season and secure one of the Big 12 title game spots.
As for Tech, there seems to be no way that the Red Raiders will play for the conference crown with three losses given that eight teams in the league currently have two losses or fewer. Therefore, Tech's hopes of reaching Arlington hinges on wins over Colorado, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia to finish the regular season 9-3 overall and 7-2 in the league.
Of course, this weekend's game with the Buffaloes is massive because the Red Raiders trail 4-1 Colorado by one game in the standings. But if Tech wins, it will put the tiebreaker between those two teams on the Red Raiders' side. However, the winning can't stop there. What's more, Tech will need some other teams to lose at least once.
Texas Tech needs Iowa State to lose again
The only reason the Red Raiders are still alive in the Big 12 race is because of their win over Iowa State last week. However, the Cyclones are still ahead of Tech in the standings with a record of 4-1.
The Cyclones need to lose once more to be tied with Tech. If that happens, the Red Raiders would finish ahead of ISU by virtue of their head-to-head win.
Iowa State finishes the season at Kansas, at home vs. Cincinnati, at Utah, and at home against Kansas State. If there is hope for another Iowa State loss, it would be the final game of the year against Kansas State. However, the Red Raiders would prefer the Cyclones lose before that for one important reason.
Kansas State needs to lose once more to be behind Texas Tech
Currently tied with Texas Tech at 4-2 in the conference race, Kansas State has what looks to be a relatively easy November, at least until they end the regular season at Iowa State. Prior to that, they play home games against Arizona State and Cincinnati after an open date this weekend.
It would be in Tech's best interest for the Wildcats to slip up in one of their next two games. that doesn't seem likely given that in each of those games, ESPN.com's matchup predictor gives KSU at least a 70.5% chance to win.
However, last week's loss at Houston showed that the Wildcats can be upset. Therefore, it would be great to see them stub their toe once again before playing ISU. Tech would love to see KSU then go into Ames and beat their "Farmageddon" rivals to end the regular season and give ISU a second loss in Big 12 play.
What Texas Tech fans need to know about the Big 12 tiebreakers
The Big 12 tiebreaker system is confusing and depends on a ton of math. But here's what fans need to know.
The first tiebreaker between two teams is the head-to-head matchup. But what if two teams that haven't played this year end up tied as could be the case with Kansas State and Texas Tech?
Then, the tiebreaker will be the win percentage of each team against all common conference opponents. After that, it only grows more confusing.
Here are the remainder of the tiebreakers from the Big 12 website:
c. Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the Conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the
collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
d. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., the strength of conference schedule).
e. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. (Current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1) shall not be included.
f. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.
g. Coin toss
As you can see, things could get very complicated. What's more, some team and its fan base will likely feel cheated out of a spot in the title game if these complicated tiebreakers come into play.
But for any of this to matter to the Red Raiders, McGuire and Co. must pick up three more wins. If that happens, the team will give itself a legitimate shot at earning a place in the conference title game.