Big 12 bowl guide: ESPN matchup predictor doesn’t think highly of Houston’s chances

Oct 4, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders running back J'Koby Williams (20) rushes against Houston Cougars defensive back Marc Stampley II (22) in the second half at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Oct 4, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders running back J'Koby Williams (20) rushes against Houston Cougars defensive back Marc Stampley II (22) in the second half at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Houston Cougars aren’t going to have to travel very far to get to their bowl destination. In fact, for Willie Fritz and the Cougars, they’re not even having to leave their hometown. UH will only have to travel about 15 to 20 minutes (or maybe a little more, pending the time of day and the inevitable traffic and congestion that the Bayou City is known for) to get to the Kinder’s Texas Bowl.

But even though they won’t be going very far to play in a bowl game, it sounds like the number crunching machines behind the ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor aren’t exactly thinking that the Coogs will have a great shot at getting a win in their bowl game.

For one reason or another, the Cougars aren’t getting much of a ringing endorsement from the ESPN Analytics prediction in the upcoming bowl game against the LSU Tigers.

ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor heavily favors the LSU Tigers over the Houston Cougars in the 2025 Kinder’s Texas Bowl 

Right now, one day ahead of when the Tigers and Cougars will meet up in the Texas Bowl, the ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor is giving LSU a 67.5 percent chance of beating Houston in the Cougars’ own hometown

Now, that doesn’t mean that LSU is sure to get the win and that Houston will certainly lose. Houston is being given a 32.5 percent chance of winning in this game right now. 

It’s interesting to see LSU favored here, but it’s not all that shocking given the way ESPN’s FPI doesn’t factor in all of the changes that have taken place and the human element that goes into this sport. And even though UH is 9-3 on the season, the Coogs aren’t rated all that highly by FPI. LSU is 25, despite being just 7-5 while UH is sitting at 54 right now.

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