ESPN FPI gives Texas Tech and 7 other Big 12 teams a shot at making the Playoff

Oct 25, 2025; Lubbock, Texas, USA;  Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Trent Howland (24) rushes against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the second half at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images
Oct 25, 2025; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Trent Howland (24) rushes against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the second half at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images | Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

With Week 10 of the 2025 college football season upon us, the College Football Playoff is getting closer and closer. It’ll probably be here before any of us know it. And that’s exciting and also I’d appreciate it if time slowed down just a bit. 

I’d also appreciate it if Texas Tech was able to make it into the College Football Playoff this season. I think it’s possible. I think there’s a good chance it will happen. As it turns out, the mathematical and magical computations behind ESPN’s Football Power Index also seem to think it’s possible that the Texas Tech Red Raiders make it into the playoffs this season.

Though, the Red Raiders are one of eight Big 12 teams that seemingly have a shot at getting into the College Football Playoff this season. So, there’s a chance that it could be anyone from literally half of the conference that can get into the playoffs this season. 

And that’s a bit chaotic and silly but that’s the Big 12 for you.

Texas Tech being given the second-best shot of making it into the College Football Playoff in Week 10, according to ESPN’s FPI

Here are the eight teams who are being given a shot to make it into the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s FPI:

  • BYU Cougars - 70.4 percent
  • Texas Tech Red Raiders - 38.7 percent
  • Cincinnati Bearcats -  13.1 percent
  • Utah Utes - 11.1 percent 
  • Houston Cougars - 2.2 percent
  • TCU Horned Frogs - 1.5 percent
  • Kansas State Wildcats - 0.7 percent
  • Arizona State Sun Devils - 0.4 percent

It’s not a shocker to see the BYU Cougars at the top of this list. They’re unbeaten, have a really impressive resume, and have full control of their destiny. What’s interesting is that Texas Tech has such a lower percentage here and then there’s the Cincinnati Bearcats, hanging out in third place, a good bit further down than I expected them to be. 

But hey, the Red Raiders have a shot. And it looks like they’ve got a decent shot. They just can’t afford to stumble or have any more quarterbacks get hurt at this point in the season. No more injuries. No more losses. That's not too much to ask for, is it?

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