ESPN Matchup Predictor heavily favors Texas Tech in Big 12 matchup with Kansas State

Texas Tech's Caleb Douglas stiff-arms Oklahoma State's Mordecai McDaniel in a Big 12 football game Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium.
Texas Tech's Caleb Douglas stiff-arms Oklahoma State's Mordecai McDaniel in a Big 12 football game Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium. | Stephen Garcia/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Saturday afternoon’s road trip up to Manhattan, Kansas could be a little tricky for Joey McGuire and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Kansas State Wildcats may just be 4-4 on the season, but Chris Klieman has steered this team out of the ditch and they’ve won three of their last four games, including three Big 12 matchups. 

That includes a lopsided win over the Kansas Jayhawks (41-17), a solid victory against the TCU Horned Frogs (41-28), and a strong performance against the UCF Knights (34-20). The only loss that Kansas State had throughout that stretch came against the Baylor Bears on the road by one point (35-34).

That’s impressive. That’s solid. That’s not something Texas Tech can just assume that the Red Raiders will beat. Especially with this game being in the Little Apple. Kansas State fans are certainly looking forward to this matchup.

ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor gives the Texas Tech Red Raiders a great shot of beating the Kansas State Wildcats

Still, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, which is powered by ESPN Analytics, is giving Texas Tech a really solid chance of going into Manhattan and coming away with a win over the Kansas State Wildcats. Right now, Texas Tech is being given a 64.5 percent chance of beating Kansas State.

But I’m hesitant to just assume that that is correct. Texas Tech is in a tough position that I don’t think the computers are able to account for just yet. The Red Raiders will be without quarterback Will Hammond, who has drawn some starts this season because starting quarterback Behren Morton has been dealing with his own injury issues.

And while Morton is set to return to start for Texas Tech, it’s getting a little concerning as to what the Red Raiders might have to do if he gets injured. Hammond is out for the remainder of the season. Mitch Griffis, a transfer from Wake Forest, is the third string QB for Texas Tech. Beyond that? It’s not great. 

I think Texas Tech can win this game. I think they can take care of the ball and score on a regular basis. I’m just a little nervous.

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