As the Texas Tech Red Raiders close in on their March Madness matchup with the Akron Zips, we’re getting closer and closer to seeing if Texas Tech can survive the NCAA men’s basketball tournament while JT Toppin is sidelined and working to recover from his season-ending injury.
The Red Raiders won’t be able to turn to their leading scorer and rebounder and they’re about to take on an Akron team that is a little frightening in just how well rounded they are. That said, ESPN’s matchup predictor is giving Texas Tech an 81.9 percent win probability against the 12-seeded Zips in Friday’s NCAA tournament first-round game down in Tampa.
On the surface, that feels right. Texas Tech is a 5-seed, after all. The Red Raiders have been really impressive throughout the season. They’ve secured some truly dominant wins and also managed to beat some really highly ranked opponents.
But Texas Tech is also on a three-game losing skid and doesn’t have JT Toppin to turn to. And that’s some very important context that can’t get overlooked.
ESPN Matchup Predictor actually gives Texas Tech an 81.9 percent win probability in March Madness matchup with Akron
Also, it’s absolutely worth remembering that this Akron team has managed to win the MAC three seasons in a row and in four of the last five MAC tournaments. John Groce has an absolute force built and they’re winning a lot on a very regular basis.
Add in the fact that they’re shooting 50.3 percent from the field, manage to score 88.4 points per game, and happen to outscore folks with a +14.9 scoring margin, and it’s clear that the Zips are able to run the score up on folks on a very regular basis as well.
Texas Tech does bring some elite three-point shooting into this game thanks to Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell, that absolutely can’t get ignored. Texas Tech was one of the most impressive teams in the Big 12 (which happened to be very loaded this year) and if the Red Raiders can recapture the momentum they had prior to this recent losing streak, then they’ll be dangerous.
This matchup with Akron gives Texas Tech a chance to rediscover that a bit. We’ll see if the Red Raiders can do that. ESPN’s matchup predictor seems to believe that McCasland and Tech will do just that.