Saturday in Lubbock, the Texas Tech football team will look to avenge its only 2025 Big 12 loss when the Arizona State Sun Devils come to town. While fans might be looking at this game as an opportunity for revenge, the coaches and players don't appear to be so inclined.
"I wouldn't say [it's] a game circled," tight end Terrance Carter Jr. said Tuesday. "If it's circled, it's just because it is the next opponent we have. They're a really good team, and we know what we have to do. We have to go out there and execute plays the way that we know how and honest, just get this team rolling."
Thus far, ASU has been tough for Texas Tech to handle during the tenure of Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham. In 2024, the two teams met in Lubbock with the Red Raiders pulling out a hard-fought 30-22 victory. Of course, later that season, ASU would go on to win the Big 12 title despite being picked last in the conference's preseason poll.
Last season, the Sun Devils secured a 26-22 win over Tech in Tempe, Arizona. That was the game in which Will Hammond had to start at QB for the Red Raiders in place of the injured Behren Morton.
Tech trailed for most of the game until Hammond found his groove in the fourth quarter to put his team ahead 22-19 with two minutes left. However, the Tech defense was unable to keep ASU out of the end zone in the closing moments.
This year, the Red Raiders enter the game as massive favorites. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives them a 94.1% chance to prevail. That's due in large part to ASU's struggles against major-conference teams.
At 3-2 on the season, their best win was a 24-17 win over a bad Kansas team. That game was odd, though, because it was played in London, England.
The only two other Power-4 teams ASU has played this year have blown the Sun Devils out of the water. In week two, a Texas A&M team that has proven to be rather poor this year took down Dillingham's squad 48-20 in College Station. Then, two weekends ago, Baylor rocked ASU 55-19 in Tempe.
While everyone in scarlet and black should respect Dillingham's program and fear his ability to squeeze the most out of his roster, there are reasons that the Red Raiders are such huge favorites this week. Let's take a look at some stats that show why Arizona State might continue to struggle on Saturday.
Arizona State and Texas Tech are headed in different directions in the turnover department
When it comes to the game's most important statistic, the Red Raiders could have a huge edge over the Sun Devils. That's because ASU is one of the most turnover-prone teams in the nation, while Texas Tech's defense has started to come up with turnovers in spades.
Dillingham's team ranks just 109th nationally in turnover margin, averaging 0.60 more giveaways per game than takeaways. ASU has lost five fumbles and been intercepted three times so far.
In their three wins, they have given the ball away a total of one time. But against A&M, they had four costly turnovers, and against Baylor, they had three.
Meanwhile, Tech has taken the ball away seven times in the last two games. So if ASU doesn't do a better job of protecting the football this weekend, the Red Raiders could roll.
Arizona State's defense might not be able to put the Texas Tech offense in bad situations
One problem for Texas Tech this season has been negative plays by the offense. Too many times, the Red Raiders have been behind the chains on third down because of lost yardage on first or second down. That was a problem two weeks ago against Colorado when Tech was 3 of 12 on third down.
Fortunately, ASU does not feature a defense that is prone to making plays behind the line of scrimmage. In fact, they rank No. 104 nationally in tackles for loss.
Averaging just 4.4 TFLs per game, the Devils are last in the Big 12. That is odd given how aggressive their defense typically is. Last year, for instance, they finished 17th overall in America by averaging 6.6 TFLs per contest.
Not being able to make plays in the backfield is one reason they are giving up the second-most points per game in the conference. If they don't find a way to put Tech behind the chains on Saturday, then they could be in for a long day on the South Plains.
The Texas Tech defense could have a big advantage on third down
Finally, ASU is one of the worst teams in America when it comes to converting on third down. Successful on only 29.7% of their opportunities, they sit at 128th overall and last in the Big 12.
That is good news for a Texas Tech defense that has been poor on third down as well. Tech sits at No. 89 in that category by allowing teams to convert on 39% of their chances.
The Red Raiders have been better, though, in recent weeks. Against Sam Houston, they allowed only five conversions on 16 tries. Then, Colorado was able to convert just six of their 16 third-down attempts.
Meanwhile, in ASU's two losses, they have combined to go just 7 for 27 (25.9%) on third down. If that trend continues this week, the Red Raiders will be in great shape.
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