Fourth-down failings are killing the Texas Tech football team through two weeks

Since the moment he arrived on campus, Texas Tech football head coach Joey McGuire has been upfront about his belief in using a literal analytics book to help him make in-game decisions. At times, that philosophy has paid off by helping the Red Raiders win some close contests such as the 2022 victory over Texas when Tech was 6-8 on fourth down. However, thus far in 2024, McGuire's fourth-down decisions are killing his team.

Against Abilene Christian, Tech shouldn't have had to gamble as much as it did to be an FCS program. That night, the Red Raiders were just 1-2 on fourth down. That included a 4th-and-goal from the ACU one-yard line in the second half that saw running back Tahj Brooks get stuffed at the line of scrimmage.

Then, in week two against Washington State, the Red Raiders were 1-5 on fourth down. Overall, Tech is converting at just a 25% rate which is good for only 103rd in the nation.

That's an issue McGuire was asked about on Monday in his weekly press conference. What he said, though, didn't really make one believe that he is ready to change his approach.

"I think this game, we were, it was terrible as far as the turnovers the missed conversions," he said, "and again that's something that we will spend all week long, if we're going to change our aggression do we change our aggression on our side of the ball? Do we get to a point, you know, when the analytics really got started if you go back even if you look at [Ole Miss head coach] Lane Kiffin, his aggression didn't start until he passed his own 50. I mean do we have to do stuff like that?"

No, coach McGuire. You don't do that when it is killing your team. You throw the analytics book away and use your own brain to make critical decisions. That's what you are being paid millions of dollars to do. Use your football knowledge and experience rather than a book compiled by numbers geeks to decide when to be aggressive and when to be conservative.

McGuire then went on to hammer home a different but related and valid point. His team's defense has to be better overall and it has to be good enough to bail out the offense after a failed 4th-down conversion.

"I still go back," he said, "I know nobody wants to hear this, you know, but we don't get it, we miss a block we don't get it on 4th down but then we give up a touchdown for a 43-yard rush. If that ball was on the 20-yard line and that same play would have been run we would have just given up a touchdown for an 80-yard rush you know because we misfit on the edge. We don't make a tackle in the secondary you know and so that right now is something that we've got to get fixed."

In that regard, McGuire does have a point. So far in 2024, Texas Tech's opponents have scored 31 points following a failed 4th-down attempt by the Red Raider offense. That's 35.2% of the total number of points that the Red Raiders have given up this year.

Another way to look at it is to realize that on five of the six possessions following a Red Raider turnover on downs this season, the opponent has scored. While some of those possessions meant that the defense had to protect a short field, there have also been times when the Tech defense has allowed long drives in those situations such as the 96-yard touchdown drive that Abilene Christian executed after stopping Brooks at the goal line in week one.

"We're not playing very well on defense right now either," McGuire said following Saturday's loss, "so [if we punt] they have a longer field to drive. I mean it's just one of those deals that in the first really the first two years, we have done a really good job I think defensively off of missed conversions and right now through two games, we are not doing a good job after missed conversions.

"And so do we go...it's frustrating man because our philosophy is to be aggressive and we're an analytics team and right now the numbers are coming up short for us. I mean the big turn in that game again was missed first down they score on the very next play on I think the running back they run counter to the nub he scores. We come out, throw the ball. Josh Kelly fumbles. They get the ball down like the one-yard line and they score."

No one will disagree with McGuire's assessment that his defense is playing poorly right now. However, some fans are likely to interpret that information differently than McGuire does.

McGuire's remarks make it seem like he believes that his struggling defense is destined to give up a score following any missed fourth-down attempt. Thus, why worry about a short field because the offense will score regardless of how far it has to drive. However, others may think that the best gift a coach can give a struggling defense is as much yardage as possible to defend.

Offenses are far more likely to score when they have to go only 40 or 50 yards rather than when they are forced to drive 80 or more yards. The more plays that an offense is forced to execute during a drive, the greater the chances are that a random fumble, an errant pass, or an ill-timed flag could end the drive.

Instead, McGuire appears to be resigned to the fact that his defense won't stop anyone so he might as well just risk giving the offense a short field. That's a flawed way of thinking and a pessimistic outlook from one of the most optimistic people in the sport.

While McGuire's logic may have merit, there is no denying that his team is being hurt by his aggressive in-game decisions. So it would make sense for the analytics book to be locked in a drawer somewhere on campus and hidden from McGuire and his staff. That's an easy way to solve one of the biggest problems the Red Raiders have encountered in 2024.