Latest PAC-12 realignment moves show how lucky Texas Tech is to be in the Big 12

In today's landscape of college football, conference realignment never seems to rest. On Thursday, it was the PAC-12 that made waves.

Announcing the additions of four schools, Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, and San Diego State to join Washington State and Oregon State, the two remaining members of the conference, the PAC-12 is the latest league to reshape the topography of college football.

So what does this have to do with Texas Tech and the Big 12? While these moves won't directly impact either entity, they are a reminder of how fortunate the Red Raiders are to be in the Big 12.

Remember, in 2010, there were serious discussions between the PAC-12 and some Big 12 schools, including Texas Tech. At that time, the Big 12 was the vulnerable league having lost Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado, and Nebraska and many people around Raiderland were hoping that the PAC-12 would wind up being a safe harbor for Texas Tech.

In hindsight, we can see that the PAC-12's decision not to add any Big 12 schools proved to be a blessing in disguise for the Red Raiders. Since that wild time, nearly a decade and a half ago, the PAC-12 has been mismanaged and doomed by poor leadership to the point that, in 2024 and 2025, the league has only two schools, Oregon State and Washington State. Of course, if those two schools had any offers to join other conferences, then the PAC-12 would cease to exist at all.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 is as strong as it has been since the first four teams departed the league in the early 2010s. Under the leadership of commissioner Brett Yormark, the conference has stabilized and has moved forward with a lucrative new television media rights deal that positions the league as the No. 3 conference in terms of television and media revenue behind the Big Ten and the S.E.C.

Meanwhile, the PAC-12 is welcoming the most underwhelming group of schools to its conference just to get to six teams. While the Big 12 poached away attractive PAC-12 universities Colorado, Arizona, Utah, and Arizona State, all of which bring something of value to the table, the PAC-12 has had to sift through the bargain bin to replenish its ranks.

Neither Boise State, Fresno State, nor Colorado State will bring much to the PAC-12 in terms of television revenue given that they are in tiny media markets. Similarly, San Diego State won't draw boffo ratings in Southern California where USC and UCLA reside.

What's more, who else of value is out there for the PAC-12 to add? Would Group of 5 conference programs such as Memphis, Tulsa, San Jose State, or Air Force bring any value to the league? Almost certainly not. Also, it seems questionable at best that any of those schools would want to join this new decaffeinated version of the PAC-12 in the first place.

The best that the new PAC-12 has going for it is that it will likely be good enough of a conference that its champion will earn the fifth automatic bid for the College Football Playoffs. With the new additions, the PAC-12 has the right to believe that it is the fifth-best football conference in the nation and as such, its champion should be the highest-ranked non-Power 4 conference champion most years. (Though the AAC would likely disagree).

Still, that means that in most years, the PAC-12 champion is going to be the No. 12 seed in the playoff. What's more, it is hard to fathom this rebuilt conference ever earning an at-large bid to the playoff.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 champion will be one of the top four seeds in the playoff and will earn a bye to the second round. Also, in most years, the conference will at least have one team worthy of consideration for an at-large bid.

Though any thoughts of a playoff appearance for Texas Tech in 2024-25 is laughable given the way the Red Raiders have played in the first two weeks of the season, there is still hope that this program will one day find its footing and win the Big 12 or earn an at-large bid to the playoff. Along the way, Tech will be financially secure thanks to the Big 12's payouts, something that can't be underappreciated as the price of running a college athletic department skyrockets each year.

Is the new Big 12 perfect? No. There are no blue-blood programs and the conference is likely going to play third fiddle to the Big Ten and S.E.C. for the remainder of its existence.

Still, we have to look no further than the PAC-12 to see what the Big 12 could have become 15 years ago. Thankfully, Tech wound up staying in the Big 12 and not jumping into the water hoping that the PAC-12 would be a life raft because now, it is the PAC-12 that is trying to find a way just to stay afloat.