Ten bold predictions for the 2024 Texas Tech football season

Today, the Texas Tech football program kicks off its 100th season by hosting Abilene Christian at Jones Stadium. This is year three of the Joey McGuire era and there's no question that this is the most important season thus far of McGuire's time in Lubbock.

Sure, QB Behren Morton, RB Tahj Brooks, and a few other players were here before McGuire arrived but almost all vestiges of the previous coaching staff are now just memories (thankfully). This is McGuire's program from top to bottom.

However, with that realization also comes responsibility. The results must improve for the program in 2024.

No longer is it acceptable to simply limp into a bowl game the way Tech did last year at 6-6 in the regular season. No longer are road losses in winnable games to be the norm. No longer is mediocrity going to be acceptable.

There's been too much invested in this program since McGuire's arrival for Tech to remain a run-of-the-mill Big 12 also ran. As a reminder of that reality, all Tech has to do is look at the shiny new south endzone building to know how much this fan base and this university want to win.

Each season brings with it hopes and expectations and this year is certainly no different for the Red Raiders. Could this be the year that there is a breakthrough on the South Plains? What else are we in store for this fall? Here are ten bold predictions for Texas Tech's 2024 season.

Behren Morton will start every game at QB

This will finally be the year that Texas Tech gets to go through an entire season with its week-one starting QB making every start. That hasn't happened since Pat Mahomes started all 12 games in 2016.

The last time Tech had its week-one starting QB available for every game was in 2020 when Alan Bowman was available but didn't make every start as Henry Colombi was asked to start a handful of games when Bowman struggled.

As for the last time Tech's week-one starter played in every game of the season, that was in 2017. That year, Nic Shimonek started every game but the regular-season finale at Texas, a game in which he came off the bench and led Tech to a comeback win after backup McLane Carter started the game.

This year, with a strong ground game, a big backup QB to run the ball for him, and an increased sense of how to protect himself, Morton will survive the Big 12 season and make every start. How refreshing will that be for everyone in Scarlet and Black?

Tahj Brooks will not be All-Big 12 this year

Running back Tahj Brooks will take a step back in 2024, at least statistically. In a Big 12 loaded with high-end running backs, his decreased workload and rushing output will result in Brooks being left off of the All-Big 12 teams.

Brooks will still be as good at playing football this year as he was last fall. However, Tech won't ask him to run the ball 290 times this season. An improved passing game and a healthy Morton will mean more balance for the offense.

By getting to around 1,200 yards this year, Brooks will break Tech's career rushing record but just barely. He will still be effective and one of the best backs in the country but he won't have the type of stats that he put up a season ago and that's often what determines all-conference selections.

Texas Tech will have a 1,000-yard receiver

Texas Tech has not had a 1,000-yard receiver since Antione Wesley had over 1,400 yards in 2018. Since then, the most a Red Raider has put up was 744 yards by Jerand Bradley in 2022.

This season, Josh Kelly will top 1,000 yards for the Red Raiders. He came close to that last year for Washington State on a 5-7 team. This year, he will be the focal point of Tech's passing game and he and Morton will develop a rapport that will pay off in a huge way.

With a healthy Morton and a bevy of capable pass catchers, the Tech passing attack will be one of the most feared in the Big 12 by season's end and Kelly will be the tip of that spear. Look for the super-senior to go out in style.

Texas Tech will not have a player with more than seven sacks

On the other side of the ball, Tech won't have a standout pass rusher. Rather, the team will get after the QB by using a strength-in-numbers approach.

All offseason, D.C. Tim DeRuyter has touted his defense's depth. As a result, no Red Raider outside of linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts will put up massive stats.

Programs often covet the idea of having a double-digit-sack player but Tech won't come close to that. Because of the way DeRuyter will swap in and out his pieces on the edge, this team will not have a player top seven sacks even though, as a group, the Red Raiders could be better at getting to the passer this fall.

Texas Tech will be ranked at some point this season

2018 was the last time Texas Tech cracked the top 25. That year, the Red Raiders checked in at No. 25 after stunning No. 15 Oklahoma State in Stillwater, 41-17.

Since then, Tech hasn't really sniffed the top 25. That will change this year.

The Red Raiders will get off to a 5-0 start and head into a ranked showdown at Arizona in week six. If Tech can win that game, the sky will be the limit for 2024.

Tech will go undefeated at home

Joey McGuire has been excellent at home as head coach of the Red Raiders. That will continue this year as Tech will go 7-0 at Jones Stadium.

There are no teams ranked in the preseason set to come to Lubbock this fall. What's more, awful teams such as ACU, North Texas, Arizona State, and Cincinnati will comprise over half of Tech's home slate.

Games against Baylor and Colorado should also be wins in Lubbock for the Red Raiders. The biggest threat to an undefeated home season will be West Virginia, which comes to Lubbock in the regular-season finale. Still, if Tech proves to be as good this year as everyone inside the program thinks they will be, then running the table at home wouldn't be too far-fetched.

Tech will have at least one offensive lineman receive All-Big 12 honors

This might be the biggest stretch of all of today's predictions. But for some reason, it feels like the Red Raiders will have an All-Big 12 offensive lineman this season.

That would be great news for a program that has struggled along the line for far too long. What's more, it would be a sign that new OL coach Clay McGuire is a strong developer of talent.

Keep an eye on left guard Vinny Sciury here. The Toldeo transfer is a mauler inside who plays with an edge. If he doesn't earn All-Big 12 recognition, then perhaps it will be Caleb Rogers, the super-senior, who does. Once Tech settles on a position for Rogers (hopefully right guard), he could put it all together and have his best season as a Red Raider.

Texas Tech will have a positive turnover margin

Last year, turnovers doomed the Red Raiders. Tech was 110th in the nation in turnover margin giving the ball away 0.46 more times per game than it took it away from opponents.

That changes this year in a big way. While the defense still won't reach the goal of three turnovers per game, it will generate more than last year's paltry 17 takeaways.

Meanwhile, stability at the QB position will mean there shouldn't be many (if any) three or four INT games like we saw last season. What's more, Tahj Brooks simply doesn't fumble very often meaning that when Tech runs the ball, it is secure. Thus, this year Tech will be on the positive side of the turnover margin and that will make a significant difference in how the season plays out.

Micah Hudson will have no more than 500 yards receiving

Micah Hudson will be a star for the Red Raiders. It will just take until next year before he's ready to dominate the Big 12.

The former five-star signee will have some growing pains in 2024 as every true freshman wide receiver does when transitioning to the college game. Plus, Tech has its deepest wide receiver/TE group since perhaps the Leach era meaning Hudson can be eased into the offense and not thrown to the wolves immediately.

If Hudson comes close to 500 yards this season, it should be considered a truly successful campaign for the Temple, Texas native. Tech won't have to ask Hudson to be a star right out of the gates and that's going to be best for both the player and the team. Eventually, he will be one of the best WR in the Big 12. It just won't be in 2024.

Texas Tech will play for the Big 12 title...next season

Finally, Texas Tech will come up short of its team goal of playing for the Big 12 title this year. However, this team feels like it is building toward eventually breaking through and getting to Arlington, Texas for that opportunity.

This should be a season when McGuire irons out a few of the last wrinkles in his program (winning on the road for starters). What's more, another season as the starter should do wonders for Morton.

Next season, Tech could return a ton of contributors on both sides of the ball. While losing players like Kelly, Brooks, and corner Braylon Lux will hurt, Tech will be older and more experienced next season as a whole and that will pay off in a big way. This program is headed to the Big 12 title game, it just won't be until 2025.