Texas Tech Red Raiders football 2024 game-by-game predictions

It is year three of the Joey McGuire era for the Texas Tech football program. Certainly, both internal and external expectations are being ramped up now that the man in charge has his fingerprints all over every aspect of what's happening at the corner of University and the Marsha Sharp Freeway.

Some suggest that this is the most important year of Red Raider football in over a decade. That's because there is an opportunity to step into the power void left by the departures of Oklahoma and Texas and become one of the marquee programs in the reconstituted Big 12.

To do that, though, Tech will have to take a massive step forward from 2023 when the program managed just seven wins. It would seem that nothing short of double-digit wins would get the nation's attention and put Tech in consideration for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

To understand how rare such a feat would be for the Red Raiders, understand that the program has only improved by three or more wins from one season to the next 16 times in a century of playing football.

Of course, during the past 100 years, few seasons like the 2024 season have come around, seasons in which the Red Raiders have been in the middle of a college football shakeup that has altered the landscape of the sport. Sure, joining the Southwest Conference in 1960 and the Big 12 in 1996 were similar situations but those changes saw the Red Raiders take a massive step up in competition.

This year, many are arguing that with Texas and OU in the SEC, the Big 12 is right for the taking. Of course, few outside of Lubbock are predicting that it will be the Red Raiders who storm their way to the top of the conference this year and earn a College Football Playoff birth.

However, most Red Raiders fans know that this program is most dangerous when it is counted out. So let's take a look at how this season could play out with our preseason game-by-game predictions.

Texas Tech vs. Abilene Christian (W)

Unlike last season when Tech opened the year with a loss at Wyoming, 2024 sees the Red Raiders begin by hosting their annual bloodletting of an FCS opponent. This year's victim will be Abilene Christian, a school led by former Texas Tech defensive coordinator Keith Patterson.

Sure, many FCS teams have pulled off upsets of FBS programs in recent years. However, Abilene Christian isn't exactly a powerhouse program at that level of the sport.

Last year, the Wildcats were just 5-6 overall with two losses to FBS programs (North Texas and Texas A&M) by an average of 21 points. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders haven't lost to an FCS or Division I-AA program since falling to North Texas in 1988. This year, that streak will continue as the Red Raiders open the season with a comfortable win over ACU.

Texas Tech @ Washington State (W)

It gets far more interesting in week two for the Red Raiders as they travel to Washington State for a nationally televised night game. This matchup will provide an early indication of whether or not McGuire has finally figured out how to get his team to win games away from Lubbock in September and October.

It will be interesting to wind out what the Cougars offer up in this game. They suffered massive defections from last year including standout QB Cam Ward (who transferred to Miami), leading receiver Josh Kelly (who is now a Red Raider), and top pass rushers Brennan Jackson and Ron Stone Jr.

Also, keep in mind that the week after hosting Texas Tech, Washington State will be hosting its in-state rival and former conference mate Washington. Could the Cougars look past the Red Raiders? It is certainly possible as this year's version of the Apple Cup will be even more emotionally charged than normal.

In the end, Tech has more talent than the Cougars do, especially at quarterback, running back, and receiver. Plus, all of the offseason focus on playing well on the road will pay off and McGuire's squad will take care of business.

Texas Tech vs. North Texas (W)

Tech will return home for a dreaded September 11 a.m. kickoff against North Texas. That will see former Red Raider receiver Eric Morris come back to the South Plains as the head coach of the Mean Green.

Though UNT has given Tech fits over the years, this doesn't seem like the season for another upset. After all, Morris is trying to manage a roster that has 74 new players on it.

Morris debuted in Denton last year with just a 5-7 record. That included blowout losses to Power 5 program Cal and future ACC program SMU.

It is hard to envision UNT making the type of strides necessary in one offseason to topple the Red Raiders in Lubbock. However, a sleepy start to this early kickoff could make this game more interesting than it needs to be. Still, look for McGuire's squad to handle its business and close out the non-conference portion of the schedule with another win.

Texas Tech vs. Arizona State (W)

Big 12 play opens favorably for the Red Raiders as the rebuilding Arizona State Sun Devils come to town in week four. Kenny Dillingham's program was picked to finish dead last in the conference this year so Tech should be a prohibitive favorite in this matchup.

Remember that 2023 4-star QB recruit Jaden Rashada, a top-ten QB recruit in his class, was supposed to lead the Sun Devil turnaround this year but he's transferred to Georgia. In his place will start Michigan State backup transfer Sam Leavitt, himself just a redshirt freshman. Thus, Tech should have a massive advantage at the most important position on the field.

We may know more about ASU than Tech when this game rolls around. In their first three games, the Sun Devils host Wyoming and Mississippi State before traveling to take on a feisty Texas State program.

Still, if the Red Raiders are going to be the quality of team that most believe they will be this year, then they had better take care of business at home against one of the weaker Big 12 teams. Winning at Jones Stadium has been McGuire's speciality and that trend should continue against the Sun Devils.

Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati (W)

The Big 12 did the Red Raiders a favor by sending two of the assumed worst teams in the conference to Lubbock in the first two weeks of conference play. Week five sees Cincinnati, picked to finish No. 14 in the league this year, come to Lubbock for the first time since 1968 (a 10-10 tie).

Look for the Bearcats to try to turn this game into a grind. Last year, they ran the ball the fifth-most of any team in the nation to hide their glaring issues at the QB spot. This season, they return their entire offensive line and their leading running back.

However, their defense returns only four starters and will have a new coordinator. That's why it's good to catch them relatively early in the season.

Ultimately, the Red Raiders will have far more firepower on the field, especially at QB and wide receiver. That will give Tech the much larger margin for error and propel McGuire and Co. to 5-0.

Texas Tech @ Arizona (L)

Business picks up in week six as Tech travels to Arizona to face a Wildcat team that opens the season in the top 25. This will truly be an opportunity for McGuire's team to make some national noise and prove that it is a Big 12 contender.

However, winning in Tucson will be more than difficult. Yes, Arizona has a new head coach in Brent Brennan, who feels like a Matt Wells type of hire given that he was just 34-48 in seven seasons at San Jose State. Still, he has a veteran QB in Noah Fifita and perhaps the nation's best wideout in Tetairoa McMillan. That will make his team dangerous on offense.

The Arizona defense did lose three starting linemen to the portal this season but return plenty of talent. That includes linebacker Jacob Manu who led the PAC-12 with 116 tackles last year.

This could be the best team Tech faces in 2023. But, the good news is that Tech will catch the Cats one week after Arizona plays at Big 12 favorites Kansas State and Utah in back-to-back weeks.

That could mean that Brennan's team is beaten up physically and mentally when Tech rolls into town. Still, until McGuire's team actually proves that it can win big games on the road early in the season, it is hard to predict they will take down Arizona in the desert.

Texas Tech vs. Baylor (W)

The first time the Red Raiders play an opponent that reminds us of the old Big 12 (and the Southwest Conference for that matter) will be in game seven when Baylor comes to Jones Stadium. That could be one of the swing games of the year.

There is no doubt that Baylor's head coach, Dave Aranda, is on the hot seat this year. He's hired a new offensive coordinator and four new assistants to serve him on that side of the ball. On defense, he's taking over the play-calling duties. Those are moves of desperation.

Baylor has questions about its starting QB but does return all five of its top receivers from last year. But can a defense that allowed the most points in the Big 12 in 2023 (33.3 per game) make big enough strides in one offseason to be competitive? That's hard to foresee.

When Baylor comes to Lubbock, it will be the Bears' third road trip in four games but they will be coming off of an open week, as will Tech. That could help them have more fight, but in the end, Tech has the better roster and will be playing at home so look for the Red Raiders to take care of business against McGuire's former school.

Texas Tech @ TCU (L)

One week later, the Red Raiders will travel to Fort Worth where emotions are always high when Tech comes to town. This will be another swing game on the schedule and one that Tech needs to win if it wants to be considered a conference contender.

After missing a bowl game last year, Sonny Dykes has something to prove in 2024. Namely, he has to prove that his 2022 run to the National Championship Game wasn't a fluke achieved with Gary Patterson's players.

An offensive-minded head coach, Dykes must coax more out of QB Josh Hoover who was up and down as a redshirt freshman in 2023. On defense, Andy Avalos (former Boise State head coach) is the new coordinator and he has to fix a passing attack that ranked just 11th out of 14 teams in the Big 12 last year.

On paper, Tech likely has more firepower and a better QB than TCU. However, winning at Amon G. Carter Stadium is never easy for the Red Raiders. And again, until McGuire's program proves it has put its road woes to bed, it is hard to predict a win in Fort Worth.

Texas Tech @ Iowa State (L)

Don't sleep on the Iowa State Cyclones this year. In fact, when Tech travels to Ames for the ninth game of the season, it will be one of 2024's biggest tests.

Iowa State is always hell to deal with at home, regardless of how good their team is. They have the best fan base in the conference and their home-field advantage is one of the best in the country.

What's more, Tech will be coming off of an emotional game vs. rival TCU (win or lose) so finding the gumption to go into Jack Trice Stadium and come out on top will be a challenge. That's a venue where Tech has won only once in its last four tries.

ISU QB Rocco Becht is a rising star in the Big 12. So too is explosive running back Abu Sama III who ran for over 500 yards in the final six games of 2023. Combine that with an always tough ISU defense and this game looks like a bear for the Red Raiders to try to steal.

Texas Tech vs. Colorado (W)

If you can't get up for a visit from Coach Prime, then why are you playing college football? In game ten, Jones Stadium should be rocking as Colorado and it's controversial head coach comes calling.

Trying to get a read on Deion Sanders' team for this year is tough. Yes, QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/DB Travis Hunter are future NFL picks in 2025.

However, the rest of the Colorado roster is questionable. Can they rebuild in one offseason an O-line that gave up 56 sacks, the most in the nation? What's more, have they fixed a defense that gave up 453.3 yards and 34.8 points per game (both in the bottom 10 nationally) a year ago?

It's always been tough to buy into the Deion Sanders hype as a head coach. So it is tough to think he'll get things figured out in Boulder this year.

The Buffs will be coming off of an open week while Tech will be returning from two road games at TCU and ISU. Still, the Red Raiders have a better roster top to bottom and a better culture so those factors should propel them to a win.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (L)

The final road game of the year sends Tech to Oklahoma State to tangle with the Cowboys and their geriatric QB Alan Bowman. But of course, the real task that day will be stopping the nation's best running back, Ollie Gordon II who amassed 2,062 total yards and 22 TDs a season ago.

What's more, the OSU defense returns ten starters from 2023. Now, that's not necessarily a sign that they will be dominant given that they ranked just 122nd nationally in total defense last fall.

Of course, Stillwater is perhaps Tech's greatest kryptonite. The Red Raiders have gone just 1-9 there since 2003.

What's more, Cowboys head coach, Mike Gundy, usually seems to have his teams playing their best as the season winds up. That's not a good sign for Tech this year. In this game, both teams will be coming off of an open week so the schedule should give no edges other than the home-field advantage that will propel the Pokes to a win.

Texas Tech vs. West Virginia (W)

Whether or not the Red Raiders can consider this regular season a success might come down to the last game against West Virginia. If these predictions hold true (which isn't likely), then Tech will need to win this game to get to eight wins in the regular season, which should be the minimum anyone in scarlet and black would accept.

It won't be easy, though. West Virginia should be a rugged team in 2024. The Mountaineers led the Big 12 in rushing last year and they return their top two rushers.

Also, QB Garrett Greene is a dangerous bus driver of the offense given his dual-threat abilities (he ran for over 700 yards last year). Thus, teams will have to be ready to play big-boy football against the Mountaineers.

WVU won nine games last year to save Neal Brown's job. This year, they look like a darkhorse Big 12 contender. However, traveling across the country to Lubbock is not an easy trip. Hopefully the fans in West Texas help fill up the Jones on Thanksgiving weekend when most of the students are gone because Tech will need every bit of support it can get to take down the Mountaineers and end the regular season on a high note.

Ultimately, I see Tech going 8-4 this year. That will be good enough to show progress for McGuire and land the Red Raiders in an intriguing bowl. What's more, it should set the program up to potentially make a run at a Big 12 title in 2025 as a host of this year's regulars should be back in the mix. Then, if Tech can win its bowl game, it would have its first nine-win season since the last year of Mike Leach's tenure (2009) and that would constitute a rather successful 2024.