With the Texas Tech football team enjoying an off week, it is a natural time to take stock of where the Red Raiders are and what lies ahead. When Tech returns to action next weekend against Arizona State in Lubbock, there will be seven games left in the regular season, and it is likely that Tech will need to win at least six to feel confident of landing a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
The narrative heading into the 2026 season was that Tech was just going to waltz through the regular season. That's because many around the nation felt like the Red Raiders' schedule was the easiest among Power 4 teams.
Things change, though, and as the season has unfolded, some of the Red Raiders' upcoming opponents have exceeded expectations. So while Tech's remaining strength of schedule is still easy by power-conference standards, according to the metrics at FourthandShort.com, Tech has a tougher remaining schedule than Notre Dame, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Duke, Kansas State, and Clemson, among others.
Certainly, not all of Tech's remaining games this year will be cake walks. After all, none of the first five have fallen into that category (at least for the entire contest). So let's count down the remaining games on the schedule by difficulty to see where the Red Raiders are the most vulnerable.
No. 7 - November 26 vs. TCU
The most winnable game left on the schedule appears to be the regular-season finale, which will bring TCU to Lubbock. That could be the game that vaults the Red Raiders into the Big 12 title game.
Fortunately, it appears that the Horned Frogs are not going to be much of a problem. Thus far, TCU is just 2-3 on the season with no wins over Power-4 opponents.
What's more, they are likely to be underdogs in all but two of their six games before coming to Lubbock. If they arrive on the South Plains on Thanksgiving night with nothing to play for because they've been eliminated from bowl eligibility, they likely won't put up much of a fight. What's more, their head coach, Sonny Dykes, could be coaching his final game for the Frogs.
No. 6 - November 7 vs. West Virginia
There was a time when West Virginia had Texas Tech's number. Those days are long gone. Tech has won six of the last seven in that series, including two in a row by an average of 43 points.
This year, WVU ranks 132nd nationally in total defense. They are giving up 456.6 yards per game thus far, the most of any Power-4 team other than Stanford.
The Mountaineers are 0-2 in Big 12 play and have given up 41 and 45 points in those two defeats. So even a pedestrian Texas Tech offense should have its way in that matchup, especially in Lubbock.
No. 5 - October 17 vs. Arizona State
When the Red Raiders return from their open week, Arizona State will be coming to town. That's a game that Tech will circle after the Sun Devils handed Joey McGuire's program its only Big 12 loss in 2025.
This year, Arizona State has been questionable in Big 12 play. They beat a bad Kansas team by only seven points in a game played in London, England, and last week, they were embarrassed by Baylor 55-19 in Tempe.
What's more, ASU also lost to a shaky Texas A&M team by 28 points earlier this year. They currently rank 122nd nationally in turnover margin, and that could spell doom against a Red Raider defense that has started to take the ball away in bunches of late.
No. 4 - October 24 @ Cincinnati
Tech's next road game was originally going to be a war when Brendan Sorsby was the Red Raiders' starting QB. Now, the road trip to Cincinnati in two weeks will have far less juice.
What's more, the Bearcats are not a great team this year. On the positive side, they are 4-1 with home wins over Boston College and Kansas State. However, in their most recent game, they lost at Arizona 34-7.
Cincy currently sits at No. 112 nationally in total defense. They are also 121st against the pass. So hopefully, that will give the Red Raider attack a chance to get right, even if it is on the road.
No. 3 - October 31 vs. Arizona
One of the most lopsided series in Texas Tech football history is the one with Arizona. All-time, Tech leads 27-5.
Arizona has only one win in Lubbock, and that was way back in 1935. If form holds this year, that trend will continue.
Tech will be heavily favored to win this Halloween showdown on the South Plains. However, Arizona does feature one of the best QBs in the Big 12, Noah Fifita, a senior with 13 TD passes and only three interceptions this season.
Tech is 124th nationally against the pass, so Fifita will try to feast on the Red Raider secondary. In fact, Zona currently has the No. 19 pass offense in the NCAA, averaging just a tick under 300 yards per game through the air. That will make this a tricky test for Tech, but one that the Red Raiders should survive at home.
No. 2 - November 21 @ Baylor
The final road test of the regular season will be no gimme for Tech. While playing at Baylor is never daunting for Tech given the number of Red Raider fans that tend to show up in Waco, the Bears are a dangerous opponent this year.
Baylor came within one play of beating Auburn to open the season. Since then, they have rattled off four wins in a row.
BU quarterback DJ Lagway is inconsistent as a passer, but on any given night, he has the talent to take over a game. On the other hand, he's currently a 53% passer this season, so it is fair to wonder if he can beat Tech with his arm.
McGuire is just 1-2 against his former employer, with both losses coming in Lubbock. He did lead Tech to a 39-14 win in Waco back in 2023, though.
One factor in Tech's favor in this matchup is that Baylor plays Tech one week after a road trip to BYU. Hopefully, that will wear the Bears down before they host the Red Raiders. Either way, though, don't overlook Tech's trip to Waco because strange things often happen when the Red Raiders head to McLane Stadium.
No. 1 - November 14 @ Oklahoma State
If the Red Raiders are going to stumble this year, it will most likely be at Oklahoma State. After all, Stillwater has traditionally been a Bermuda Triangle for Texas Tech football.
This year, Oklahoma State is experiencing a renaissance under new head coach Eric Morris, a beloved Texas Tech alum. They have already upset Oregon in Stillwater, and they sit at No. 18 in the latest poll thanks to a 3-1 record.
OSU quarterback Drew Mestemaker has the arm talent to punish the Texas Tech pass defense. He's averaging 317.7 yards per game through the air. That's 25th-best in the FBS.
If Tech doesn't fix its pass defense deficiencies before heading to Stillwater, it could be a long day. Of course, even some of the better teams in program history have struggled to come out of Boone Pickens Stadium with a win, so this is a game that Red Raider fans can't take for granted.
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