It’s hard to project exactly what Texas Tech will look like as JT Toppin has been sidelined for the remainder of the season, but it still seems likely that the Red Raiders will be good enough to go out and beat one of the lesser teams in the Big 12, right? It still seems probable that the Red Raiders will be capable of having a clear edge over Cincinnati, right?
I think so. Statistically speaking, even with Texas Tech losing its best scorer and rebounder for the rest of the year, it still looks like the Red Raiders are capable of accomplishing quite a bit. Just, you know, you’re going to need to see the rest of that roster step up in some significant ways.
And also Texas Tech will need to be able to account for the sort of defensive strengths that a team like Cincinnati has.
Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati stats preview: Do the No. 16 Red Raiders have an edge over the Bearcats?
Entering the matchup, Texas Tech has a pretty notable advantage in scoring and offensive firepower. The Red Raiders score more per game (82.1 points per game vs 72.7 points per game) and shoot consistently better from the field (46.7 percent for Texas Tech vs. 43 percent for Cincinnati).
Oh, and the Red Raiders are so much better from deep. There’s a massive gap in three point shooting here as Texas Tech makes 11.4 threes per game and is shooting 39.2 percent from behind the three point line while Cincinnati makes just 32.5 percent of its threes.
As for rebounding and defense, losing Toppin is going to be a huge issue for the Red Raiders in these sorts of matchups. Texas Tech is averaging 37.7 rebounds per game, but Toppin was averaging 10.8 of those rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is getting 37.2 rebounds per game.
On the defensive side of things specifically, Texas Tech is giving up 72.3 points per game while the Bearcats allow just 67 points per game. That difference isn’t huge, but it’s enough to pay attention to.
Texas Tech’s margin for error goes down a bit as the Red Raiders lost JT Toppin, but Texas Tech should still have enough to be able to beat Cincinnati. We’ll see how it actually pans out though.