Texas Tech and Colorado resume their Big 12 series this weekend in Boulder. It will be the 12th all-time meeting between the two schools, with Tech looking to even the series at six wins each.
The last time the Red Raiders played in Boulder was in 2010, when they came away with a 27-24 win. So far, that is Tech's only victory at Folsom Field.
This season, Colorado is 2-2 overall and 0-1 in the Big 12 following last week's 23-13 loss at Baylor. Now, after two losses in a row, the Buffaloes have made a change at quarterback, replacing sophomore Julian Lewis with junior Isaac Wilson, a transfer from Utah.
Tech enters the game as a heavy favorite. The ESPN.com matchup predictor gives the Red Raiders an 86.9% chance of prevailing on Saturday evening. Let's take a look at some of the statistical areas that make this week's visitors huge road favorites.
Texas Tech should have an edge on third down
On the game's most critical down, the Red Raiders appear to have an advantage. On third down this season, Tech has been strong, and Colorado has struggled.
When it comes to converting on third down, Colorado's offense ranks just 106th in the nation. The Buffs have been successful on only 20 of their 57 conversion opportunities (.351).
Meanwhile, the Red Raiders, while not elite by any means, have been better when it comes to stopping opponents on third down. Tech ranks 82nd in the NCAA in third-down defense by allowing opponents to convert 39.3% of the time.
Flipping sides of the ball, the Buffaloes' defense is tied for 87th in the country, giving up a first down on 40% of opponents' chances. As for the Red Raider offense, it has converted 47.9% of its third downs, good for 34th overall. If these numbers stay true to form, it will bode well for Tech on Saturday night.
Texas Tech has been penalized far less than Colorado
One area that can tip the scales in a game is penalty yardage. That's another aspect of this matchup that should favor the Red Raiders, even while playing on the road.
Colorado is one of the most heavily penalized teams in America. The Buffs have been flagged 37 times this year for 329 yards. That ranks 130th out of 137 teams in the FBS in terms of the number of penalties called against them. They are averaging 82.2 penalty yards per game in 2026.
Tech has been much better when it comes to flags. The Red Raiders have been penalized just 23 times thus far for 212 yards. They sit tied for 44th nationally in total penalties, and they are being penalized for just an average of 53 yards per game. Keep an eye on this stat when these teams meet because these hidden yards could prove to be pivotal.
Texas Tech might be able to get to the Colorado QB
Finally, when Colorado looks to throw the ball, watch to see if the Red Raider pass rush can dominate. That is possible given that the Buffaloes have been terrible when it comes to protecting their quarterback.
Thus far, Colorado has allowed ten sacks in four games. Giving up 2.5 sacks per game, they rank tied for 109th in the country. What's more, those ten sacks have come on just 133 passing attempts so far, which works out to an average of one sack for every 13.3 passes thrown.
Now, this stat could be directly impacted by the Colorado QB change. Wilson is known to be a more mobile quarterback than Lewis, the previous starter. He could extend plays better than Lewis, who is a pocket passer and who doesn't always have great recognition when dropping back.
This year, Tech's pass rush has not been as dominant as it was in 2025; not even close. However, the team's top pass rusher, Trey White, should have knocked the rust off after having played in the last two games, after missing the first two contests of the year due to a knee injury sustained in fall camp.
What's more, last week, 17-year-old true freshman edge rusher and former 5-star recruit LaDamion Guyton recorded the first two sacks of his college career. Perhaps that is a sign that the light has come on for him and he's ready to continue wrecking shop off the edge.
These three statistical categories will be worth monitoring Saturday night in Boulder because they could slant the contest in the Red Raiders' favor. If they do, the Red Raiders could very well come away with just their second all-time win at Colorado.
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