Texas Tech apparently has the Big 12’s best shot to make the College Football Playoff

Sep 20, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders running back Cameron Dickey (8) runs for a touchdown against the Utah Utes during the fourth quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images
Sep 20, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders running back Cameron Dickey (8) runs for a touchdown against the Utah Utes during the fourth quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Well, after beating Utah by 24 points on the road in Salt Lake City, it looks like things are looking up for Joey McGuire and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. And nobody should really be surprised by that. Getting a dominant win over one of the Big 12’s best teams is definitely something to brag about. 

And it’s also apparently something that the computers behind ESPN’s Football Power Index are going to be pretty fond of.

Right now, after handing the Utah Utes a 34-10 beating, Texas Tech is being given the Big 12’s best chance of making it to this season’s College Football Playoff (according to ESPN’s FPI). And I think I completely agree with that. Who wouldn’t?

ESPN’s FPI is giving the Texas Tech football team the best chance of any Big 12 team of making the College Football Playoff

To get specific, ESPN’s FPI has the Red Raiders with a 33 percent chance of making it to this season’s College Football Playoff. Given how quickly those odds have increased (and also when considering the way the Red Raiders keep playing), I’m feeling pretty good about Texas Tech’s chances here.

The Red Raiders also apparently have a 29.3 percent chance of making it through and winning the Big 12 this season.

And I believe that. That feels fairly reasonable and realistic. On the surface, it likely feels a little low, but the Red Raiders still have a few tests up ahead and that will include the eventual Big 12 championship game should the Red Raiders make it there. So, just keep winning and that percentage goes up.

But something that is interesting to me is the 2.6 percent chance of making it to the national title game this season. That’s an interesting percentage. And it’s worth noting here that Texas Tech has 19 teams ahead of it when it comes to looking at that one. That also happens to include the Big 12’s very own BYU Cougars, for what that’s worth.

The Red Raiders are doing well for themselves right now. They’re getting well-earned recognition. And as long as the wins keep coming, more and more attention will keep being paid in the direction of Lubbock. That includes the fancy computers and number crunching algorithms behind the Football Power Index rankings too.